TAMPA — Think of this like a baseball mystery.
We will assemble the clues to date and see if you wind up with the same solution as me: The Yankees are going to try to trade for an inexpensive third baseman, and save most of their better prospects and available money under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold for July needs; probably a starting pitcher.
Clue 1: Todd Frazier signed with the cross-town rival (Mets) and Eduardo Nunez is on the verge of doing so with the biggest rival (Red Sox) and the Yankees did not step up to stop either. In addition, they seem reticent on the next most obvious free agent, Neil Walker, because of his lack of exposure at third base and his history with back injury.
Clue 2: On the high-end side, the Yankees have been linked to Manny Machado, but Orioles GM Dan Duquette told me: “We spent a lot of time on that [looking into a Machado deal] in the offseason and didn’t get any significant return for the time put in on it. We have shifted gears. … These markets change all the time. But based on our exploration of the market, I expect Manny to be with our ball club.”
Clue 3: Even if Machado were available, there is almost no way the Yankees could get him and not include Miguel Andujar, and one revelation early in camp is just how much Yankees officials like Andujar. For example, Aaron Boone: “There’s no question in my mind that he’s going to hit and hit for a long time in this league. And there’s no question in my mind that defensively he’ll be really good at some point.”
Thus, I could not envision the Yanks trading a prospect they like this much for one year of Machado without a clear idea they could keep the free-agent-to-be long term.
Clue 4: Andujar and Gleyber Torres are perceived close to helping the major league team, but Torres is currently viewed as closer. Plus, the Yanks believe his best position is second. Thus, if the
Yanks think Torres could be with them by, say, early May, then third base is their more likely area to address.
Clue 5: Think about the Astros, Cubs and Yankees and how they have handled starting pitching since last July.
The Yanks’ No. 1 trade target during last season was Jose Quintana, but the lefty went to the Cubs. The Yanks pivoted to Sonny Gray, whom the Astros coveted. Houston ended up acquiring Justin Verlander, a key in beating the Yankees in the ALCS.
The Yanks’ favorite trade target this offseason was Gerrit Cole, who went from the Pirates to the Astros. Their top free agent was Yu Darvish, but his cost was too prohibitive and he went to the Cubs.
So in this circular game of follow the high-end starters, the Astros and Cubs have turned a concern to a strength by adding two while the Yanks have brought in just one. And because of previous injury and/or 2017 workload, the Yanks open 2018 with worry about their starting five of Gray, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka.
Those are the clues. My deduction:
The AL title does go through Houston, and the Yanks would feel more comfortable with one more starter to not only match the Astros’ rotation (and possibly the Cubs in a World Series), but also better deal with Houston’s awesome lineup. More vitally, though, the Yanks are much more likely to underperform in the regular season because of shortcomings and shortages in the rotation than not adequately dealing with third base.
Competent third basemen could be had for not much at the deadline — Frazier and Nunez were dealt last July. The Yanks could make a deal for a David Freese type now or wait until the deadline, and players like him, Martin Prado, Luis Valbuena, etc., should be available.
Freese, though, costs $5.5 million toward the threshold. It is not a killer. But when the Yanks have about $30 million right now budgeted for the rest of their 25-man roster, in-season call-ups, the trade season and award/performance bonuses, every penny counts.
Perhaps cost-friendly options such as Detroit’s Michael Fulmer or Seattle’s James Paxton become available in July. But what if it is more expensive, playoff-proven types such as San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner or Texas’ Cole Hamels? A trading team could always eat dollars, but that usually means forking over even better prospects? Without trading current salary, the Yanks might have about $10 million to spend at the deadline if they go conservative at third base.
Still, the Yanks would feel better if they could obtain another third baseman now who has the ability to move around the diamond — potentially playing first base if the so far fragile Greg Bird misses some time — but doesn’t cost a lot of money. That would pretty much eliminate Mike Moustakas, even if the free agent took a one-year pillow contract because that likely would still be $12 million or more.
I reported in the offseason the Yankees had interest in Texas’ Jurickson Profar and Arizona’s Brandon Drury. Profar makes $1.05 million this year and is out of options, thus, has to be on the Rangers’ roster or likely lost to waivers. Drury is not yet even arbitration eligible and thus will make less than $1 million. Both have played myriad positions. Both, like say Aaron Hicks, have lots of yet untapped talent and, thus, still might prove valuable everyday players.
Among players out of options like Profar who play multi positions (including third), don’t cost a lot and caught my eye were the Brewers’ Hernan Perez and Jonathan Villar, and the White Sox’s Leury Garcia and Yolmer Sanchez; and Perez ($1.975 million) and Sanchez ($2.35 million and potentially available if Yoan Moncada grabs second base) particularly stand out to me.
Based on the clues, I could envision the Yanks seeing if in the short run Luis Cessa and perhaps even Chad Green or Adam Warren could provide rotation support — with youngsters such as Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German and Justus Sheffield angling to be later-in-season options.
Meanwhile, the Yanks try to make a lower-level trade for a Drury, Profar or someone else in that category (Tampa Bay’s Matt Duffy?), play that acquisition at third and open with either Ronald Torreyes or Danny Espinosa at second so Andujar and Torres could get further minor league seasoning.
For now, I believe the clues point to the Yankees prioritizing saving as much prospect/financial ammunition as possible for July and a starter over over-indulging on an infielder now.
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