The 2018 NASCAR season rolls on at 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday with the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are the Vegas co-favorites at 4-1, followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin at 6-1.
Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like DraftKings, you’ll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.
SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure’s DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.
McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model was all over the Food City 500 last week, correctly calling five of the top 10 finishers at Bristol, including 20-1 long shot Clint Bowyer. Anybody who followed those picks cashed in huge.
Now that the field for the 2018 Toyota Owners 400 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.
One driver the model absolutely loves for NASCAR at Richmond: Kyle Larson, who is going off at 8-1.
Larson won the fall race at Richmond last year and is coming off a second-place finish at Bristol, another short track on the NASCAR circuit. In addition to his win last year, he has another top-five finish at this track. He’s a driver you should be all over on Saturday night.
A shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the Vegas co-favorites, doesn’t even finish in the top three.
After pulling off consecutive wins at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix, Harvick has just one top three-finish in his last four Cup events. He also finished a disappointing seventh at Bristol last week.
And while Harvick does have three career wins at Richmond, he only has finished in the top five in one-third of his starts at this track, so he’s a risky play. There are much better values than the 4-1 odds he’s getting.
The model is also calling for three drivers with odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these long shots could strike it rich.
So who wins the 2018 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that was all over the Food City 500 last week.
Kyle Busch 4-1
Kevin Harvick 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Erik Jones 15-1
Jimmie Johnson 20-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Ryan Blaney 30-1
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