The 2018 NASCAR season rolls on at 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday with the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch, who opened at 4-1, is the Vegas favorite at 3-1. Kevin Harvick is going off at 4-1, while Martin Truex Jr., who won the pole, is 5-1 to take the checkered flag.
Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like DraftKings, you’ll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.
SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure’s DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.
McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model was all over the Food City 500 last week, correctly calling five of the top 10 finishers at Bristol, including 20-1 long shot Clint Bowyer. Anybody who followed those picks cashed in huge.
Now that the field for the 2018 Toyota Owners 400 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.
One driver the model absolutely loves for NASCAR at Richmond: Kyle Larson, who is going off at 7-1.
Larson won the fall race at Richmond last year and is coming off a second-place finish at Bristol, another short track on the NASCAR circuit. In addition to his win last year, he has another top-five finish at this track. He’s a driver you should be all over on Saturday night.
A shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, doesn’t sniff the top 10. He’s a driver to avoid at NASCAR at Richmond 2018.
Elliott has struggled in the Cup series this season, finishing in the top 10 twice and the top five just once. He was 29th last week at Bristol and finished outside the top 30 at the Daytona 500 (33rd) and at the Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas (34th).
Last year, Elliott finished 24th and 10th at Richmond. He’s not worth the 7-1 odds he’s getting in a loaded field.
The model is also calling for four drivers with odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these long shots could strike it rich.
So who wins the 2018 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that was all over the Food City 500 last week.
Kyle Busch 3-1
Kevin Harvick 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Chase Elliott 7-1
Kyle Larson 7-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Erik Jones 18-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Ryan Blaney 40-1
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