Evaluating trades is a lot like grading an NFL draft. Especially when your team is getting bus riders and/or fledgling big leaguers in return.
Ask me about the Reds trade of J. Cueto for 3 non-entities, I can talk all day. Ditto the unfortunate swap of A. Chapman and the absolute steal for E. Suarez. Duvall for 2 pitchers and a position guy?
No idea.
They got pitching depth, which is different from pitching quality. They gave up an OF who finished 4th for 3 spots. Duvall actually has better power numbers than Hamilton, Schebler and Winker, and he’s better defensively than Schebler and Winker.
Since the start of 2016, he has more homers than Votto, J. Donaldson and (gulp) Bryce Harper. He’s seventh in the National League in extra base hits in that span. But he was an all-or-nothing guy and the Reds had enough power; they didn’t need one of those.
Righthander Lucas Sims was the key to the deal. At the moment, he’s like a lot of kid pitchers, including a few with the Reds now: Very good minor league numbers that haven’t translated in The Show.
Plus, Duvall will be 30 in six weeks, and is arb-eligible after this year.
What think, Mobsters? I think anyone making a definitive statement risks looking foolish in a few years.
Now, then. . .
LEBRON JAMES cares. He opened a school in Akron. The I Promise School, for at-risk kids. While a legion of athletes mostly talk a good game, James walks it. In an age when being a minority has become more difficult, James ditched the rhetoric and instantly made life better for 240 kids.
In a wonderful interview with ESPN, James said this:
Growing up in the inner city, the numbers are always stacked up against you. So you didn’t really know what was possible. I think what happened for me was that I got some mentors and little league coaches and some teachers that I kind of started to believe in. (These kids) just want someone to feel like someone cares about them. And that’s what we’re trying to do here.
We’re only as good as the way we treat each other. We live in a divided nation now, where kindness can be in short supply, and diversity is not to be trusted. We’re urged to build a wall. LeBron is building a bridge. Great for him. And for all of us.
A SMALL EXPLANATION. . . I don’t often do this. What I write is what I write, and it’s usually self explanatory. But since this column appeared Monday afternoon, I’ve had half a dozen people ask that I explain the difference between my condemning Elder students for their racial taunts at a basketball game last winter and writing yesterday that the condemning of current major league ballplayers for racist tweets they posted years ago should stop.
Fair question.
Answer:
The Elder criticism was an immediate response to an immediate situation, in an age when there’s no excuse not to know better.
Some might also call it a teachable moment for the Elder guys. What did Sean Newcomb, Trea Turner and Josh Hader learn by having their tweets from years ago unearthed?
Not to engage in social media, probably.
Every situation is different, and should be looked at that way.
THE VERY GOOD BILL BARNWELL says the Stillers will not win 13 games again this year. The reason: It’s very likely they won’t be as good in one-TD games:
The 8-2 performance is an outlier — the Steelers were 41-38 in games decided by seven points or fewer under their longtime coach before the 2017 season. And when you look at teams that won six more close games in a season than they lost (or plus-6, to make it easier), those squads did not keep it up the following year. Their overall record declined by an average of nearly three wins.
Barnwell also says Pgh will miss Ryan Shazier more than most realize:
Opposing runners averaged 4.1 yards per carry and a 21.1 percent first-down rate with the star linebacker on the field and 5.1 yards per carry with a 27.4 percent conversion rate with him sidelined.
Barnwell also cites the perfect health last year of Ben, Brown and Bell, and suggests that won’t happen again.
I dunno. For the past two years at least, I’ve predicted Ben would slip, to the Bengals advantage. He didn’t. And the Bengals underachieved. I’m hesitant to bury the Steelers for the third straight year. But the clock is ticking. . .
ONE THING THAT WILL HURT THE MEN (and Pittsburgh and the Ravens) is Cleveland is obviously better for the first time in a few years. The Browns have an actual NFL QB (Tyrod Taylor) who won’t turn the ball over on demand, and a defense that looks legit. It wouldn’t be out of the question for the Brownies to win 4-6 games. A few will come within the division.
BY THE WAY… Early returns suggest the Men stepping up the aggression are favorable. What if somebody gets hurt? Billings popped Gio yesterday, to appreciative oohs and ahs. OK, what if Bernard didn’t get up?
I understand the need to develop a mindset early on. But it’s a big risk.
THE REDS WERE OFF. WHY IT MATTERED. Matt Harvey is still a Red. He won’t be next year, or maybe next week or next month. If they don’t deal him by 4 today, he’ll have to clear waivers to be traded. I don’t think that would be a problem, unless the Reds dealt him to the Yankees. The Red Sox might block that one. But Harvey ain’t going there. The Yankees have acquired two mediocre starters (Lance Lynn, JA Happ) to go along with their already mediocre rotation. They don’t have room for another mediocrity.
Who, then? Mariners? Brewers?
PROGRAMMING NOTE TO THE -ESPONDENTS: I’m taking a few days this week, so no posts needed, fellas. Thanks.
SPEAKING OF. . . We’re headed to Franklin, Tennessee, for a few nights. Cool little town, plus I’m a Civil War nerd and the Battle of Franklin is vastly underrated as a prime collision in the War of Northern Aggression. If youse know any especially cool places in and around Franklin (even Nashville), come hard with the suggestions. On the docket now: Loveless Café, Leiper’s Fork, a hike on the Natchez Trace, a visit to Carnton plantation, site of the battle.
We’re staying in a modified pool house in a guy’s backyard. One bedroom, steps from the water. I love Airbnb.
TUNE O’ THE DAY. . . I don’t think I’ve ever featured these guys here. But I like this tune. Laid back little gem.
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