The Wild locked in and avoided arbitration with restricted free agent Matt Dumba, but now they have to ensure they do the same with Jason Zucker, who has quickly become a top-six centerpiece in Minnesota.
Over the weekend, the Minnesota Wild took care of one of their most pressing pieces of business. With defenseman Matt Dumba up for a new contract and arbitration on the horizon, GM Paul Fenton got down to work and inked the blueliner to a five-year, $30-million pact. But with one arbitration case off the docket, attention in Minnesota has turned to another.
With a hearing slated for July 28, the Wild will spend the remainder of the week trying to avoid arbitration with Jason Zucker. Much like Dumba, locking the restricted free agent winger up to a new deal won’t come cheap. Unlike Dumba, however, the terms of such a deal may not come easy, particularly not when Zucker has put himself in position to be paid like the top-six standout he’s become. While he may not get the credit he deserves outside of Minnesota, often overshadowed by Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, Eric Staal and Mikael Granlund, the 26-year-old has undoubtedly become a centerpiece of the Wild offense over the past two campaigns.
This past season, Zucker set career bests with 33 goals and 64 points while playing stable first- or second-line minutes for the entire campaign. It wouldn’t appear this is some sort of flash-in-the-pan campaign from Zucker, either. Rather, he’s steadily built his way up to this level of production. From his initial breakout, a 21-goal performance in 2014-15, to his first truly consistent season in Minnesota, a 22-goal, 47-point campaign in 2016-17, Zucker has gone from speedy depth winger to top-six standout over the past few seasons.
More than pure numbers, however, it’s the company Zucker has begun to keep that truly makes his case. Over the past two seasons, Zucker’s 55 goals tie him for 31st in the NHL and put him in the same company and give him a similar goal-scoring rate as the likes of Phil Kessel, Artemi Panarin, Leon Draisaitl. Similarly, his 111 points leave him tied for 63rd among forwards over the past two seasons, while he sits alongside the likes of David Krejci, Jordan Eberle, Kyle Turris, Jeff Skinner and Ryan Johansen when it comes to rate of scoring. The low end of the pay scale among those eight forwards is Skinner, who carries a $5.725-million cap hit. The high end is Draisaitl, who inked a deal worth $8.5-million annually just last summer. But that gives you an idea of what a player with Zucker’s offensive ability is worth in today’s NHL.
Zucker’s value shouldn’t be tied entirely to his offensive prowess, however. As much as he’s excelled at stuffing the scoresheet in recent years, Zucker has proven himself one of the more capable two-way wingers in the NHL.
Among the 264 forwards to skate upwards of 2,000 minutes at 5-on-5 across the past three campaigns, Zucker ranks 212th with a 44.9 offensive zone start percentage. He’s rightfully gained the trust of the Wild coaching staff in recent years, too, because not only does he take a heavier slant of defensive zone starts than the vast majority of similar-minute forwards, Zucker has done so against top-quality opponents while still managing to drive play. Though his 49.6 Corsi for percentage at 5-on-5 is significantly lower than other 2,000-minute men — the top forward over the past three seasons is Patrice Bergeron at nearly 58.3 percent — what is worth noting about Zucker’s play-driving performance is how it compares to that of his teammates. Relative to his teammates, Zucker ranks 81st in Corsi for percentage at 2.22 percent.
And when it comes to not just driving play but ensuring the Wild are better off on the scoreboard with Zucker on the ice than without him, his numbers speak volumes. Despite his unfavorable deployment and high level of competition, Zucker’s 58.5 goals for percentage at 5-on-5 over the past three seasons is the 14th-best mark among the same group of 2,000-minute forwards. His relative goals for percentage of 7.5 percent also ranks 35th among that group. His individual expected goals for rate is also among the highest in the league among those forwards, only slightly lower than that of Viktor Arvidsson and Evander Kane but higher than that of Patrice Bergeron and Nazem Kadri.
There’s more to it still, though, like the little things that Zucker does well that should prompt the Wild to lock him in long-term and ensure he remains a fixture of the attack. Zucker’s speed and tenaciousness has helped him draw the 18th-most penalties over the past three campaigns, while he has the 36th-best penalty differential over that span at plus-22. There’s value in that that won’t show up in a boxscore.
The only hangup for the Wild when it comes to handing Zucker a long-term pact with a $6 million-plus — or even as much as $7 million — cap hit is managing the salary cap for the upcoming season. As it stands, Minnesota is heading into the remainder of their off-season with roughly $7.3 million to spend. If Zucker eats into that significant, it potentially limits what the Wild will be able to do to bolster their roster should the lineup be decimated by injury or if a glaring weakness is exposed. That’s not to mention the less cap space the Wild have, the less they’ll be able to add at the trade deadline should they want to compete with a stacked Central Division that includes the Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues.
But the future outlook on signing Zucker to a big-money deal isn’t all that bad. While there are upcoming contract considerations for pending RFAs Joel Eriksson-Ek and Gustav Olofsson, and though Eric Staal, Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, Nate Prosser and Alex Stalock are among the unrestricted free agents up for new deals come the 2019-20 off-season, Minnesota could have upwards of $10 million to spend next summer and more than $30 million in space by the time Granlund, Koivu, Charlie Coyle and Jared Spurgeon see their current contracts expire.
Cap constraints or not, though, the Wild should feel safe spending big on Zucker, because his considerable impact on the lineup is all but certain to make him worth every penny.
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