Cam Talbot went from near Vezina Trophy finalist to a sub-.910 save percentage season. The Oilers need him to be better next season, but that all boils down to better play in front of their No. 1 netminder.
The Edmonton Oilers faced a laundry list of issues last season. Beyond Connor McDavid’s continued dominance and Leon Draisaitl’s stellar production, the Oilers lacked much in the way of supplemental offensive punch, big-money players underproduced, the depth disappeared far too often and the defense still appeared in need of massive repairs. But one of the chief disappointments in Edmonton last season was Cam Talbot.
One season removed from finishing fourth in Vezina Trophy voting — with much of the love predicated upon Talbot starting all but nine games and putting up career-best numbers as a starter — Edmonton had high hopes for the netminder. His .919 save percentage and 2.39 goals-against average one season prior weren’t exactly world-beating totals, but they were enough that Talbot helped propel the Oilers to just their second playoff berth in the post-lockout era and first in 11 seasons. But with the expectations surrounding Talbot being that of a surefire No. 1 netminder, one who could make up for any defensive woes, it’d be safe to say the keeper fell well short.
In 67 games last season, Talbot’s numbers left much to be desired. Having posted a career .922 SP across nearly 190 games heading into 2017-18, Talbot slipped and found himself posting a mere .908 SP. The owner of a career 2.32 GAA ahead of the campaign, he saw that number balloon above three goals per game last season. And one year removed from a career-best seven-shutout performance, Talbot registered only one clean sheet all season, that performance coming on opening night. Suffice to say, in part due to Talbot’s play, the Oilers’ McDavid-led offense wasn’t able to outpace its defensive woes as they fell short of the post-season once again.
Edmonton didn’t remain idle this summer in response to Talbot’s play. Matter of fact, in free agency, Edmonton went out and signed veteran KHL standout Mikko Koskinen to a one-year, $2.5-million pact — tied for the sixth-highest cap hit among projected second-string goaltenders — that would seem to suggest the Oilers are counting on him to backstop them in more than a handful of games. But the ideal situation for Edmonton wouldn’t see Koskinen step in and take over. Rather, it would be for Talbot to return to form.
For Talbot, one of the biggest issues last season was consistency. Far too often he followed good stretches with bad as he failed to find his footing after the shutout start to the season. Case in point, after a few ugly outings on the heels of the season opener, Talbot went on to post a .920 SP across a dozen games from mid-October to mid-November. But that stretch was immediately followed by a 12-game period in which Talbot’s SP dipped below the .900 mark. And though he went on a .921 SP run from mid-February onward, his 15 games prior were even worse than the dozen-game sample leading into mid-December. It certainly didn’t help matters, either, that Talbot finished with the sixth-worst SP mark among contemporaries who played at least 1,500 minutes at 5-on-5 and sixth-worst among those with at least 150 minutes on the penalty kill.
But not all of the blame can fall on Talbot’s shoulders for his season-over-season decline. Because while true that his totals dipped further than any season prior, be it in Edmonton or back during his time with the New York Rangers, Talbot was given the least defensive support of his career.
Last season, per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, Talbot saw an increase in low-danger shots against (3.6 increase to 14.5), medium-danger shots against (0.6 increase to 11.4) and high-danger shots against (0.5 increase to 6.8), while also seeing 29.1 scoring chances against, an additional 2.5 more than the season prior. Respectively, among goalies who played at least 1,500 minutes, those totals ranked 20th, seventh, second and fifth. His total shots faced per 60 minutes also rose from 29.9 in 2016-17 to 32.7 in 2017-18, which was the sixth-highest mark in the league. Add it all up and Talbot’s expected SP at five-a-side was a mere .917, the fifth-lowest among netminders who played 1,500 minutes. Add in all strengths, though, and the Oilers’ had only played well enough defensively in front of Talbot to give him a .905 expected SP.
The good news in all of this is that when measured on how well he played despite poor defending, Talbot wasn’t all that poor. In fact, his overall SP was nearly three-thousandths of a point better than the expected mark, which put him squarely in the middle of the pack as it pertains to starting netminders last season. That’s a positive, and it was the fourth consecutive season in which Talbot has performed better than his workload would have actually suggested.
The unfortunate news for the Oilers and their faithful, however, is that beyond what they hope will be the continued growth of Darnell Nurse, there’s not much reason to expect the Edmonton blueline to be significantly better this season. The addition of Jakub Jerabek will do little to replace what was lost with the injury to Andrej Sekera, and barring a sizeable turnaround from Oscar Klefbom, it seems as though there might be more of the same for the Oilers this season. Additions to the depth of the roster Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Rieder, Kevin Gravel and possible PTO-turned-signing Scottie Upshall probably won’t have all that great an impact on turning around the team’s overall defensive performance, either.
Despite that, Talbot’s history of playing above his expected SP can give some faith that he won’t be the weak link next season. In order for him to truly get back to the Vezina-contending netminder he was in 2016-17, though, the defending in front of him is going to need to improve.
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