Recap of the day
Morning wave: A trio of players jumped clear and grabbed the clubhouse lead. They were Chris Kirk (winner here in 2014), Beau Hossler and Keegan Bradley who all carded 4-under-par laps of 67. Behind them no less than six golfers signed for 3-under-par 68s.
Afternoon wave: Gary Woodland joined the pack on 4-under-par, but Justin Rose slipped them all with a superb error-free 6-under-par 65. Soon afterwards Russell Knox and Abraham Ancer signed for 5-under 66s.
Leaderboard:
-6 Justin Rose
-5 Russell Knox, Abraham Ancer
-4 Chris Kirk, Beau Hossler, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland
Notables: -3 Dustin Johnson, -2 Jordan Spieth, -1 Bryson DeChambeau, level Rory McIlroy, +1 Tiger Woods, +2 Justin Thomas, +5 Jason Day,
Revised outright betting: Rose 9/2, D.Johnson 5/1, Koepka 12/1, Spieth 16/1, Woodland 25/1
Saturday weather forecast
Low 70s in temperature, a few clouds but mostly sunny, a nice breeze of about 10mph and almost no chance of rain.
Leaders after at 18 holes
Justin Rose (65) – Not only No. 1 on the leaderboard, but also top of the projected FedEx Cup rankings. Found 15 of 18 greens in regulation and made three birdies in the final four holes, none from outside six feet.
Russell Knox (66) – Played the first 12 holes in level-par and then added three birdies and an eagle-3 before he left the final green. All despite finding only six fairways.
Abraham Ancer (66) – Bogey-free and none of his five birdies were from outside of 11 feet. Projected to leap from 92nd to 16th on the FedEx Cup rankings.
Chris Kirk (67) – Never mind the six birdies conversion from inside 30 feet, what really guaranteed this score were the five par putts from between four and nine feet.
Beau Hossler (67) – Just seven of 14 fairways and 10 of 18 greens in regulation, but Hossler loves a fast start. A tenth post-R1 position of T7 or better in just 22 2018 calendar starts.
Keegan Bradley (67) – Three short birdie conversions on the front nine and another from 16’8″; on the back nine traded one cross and once circle.
Gary Woodland (67) – Made five birdies and all of them from within ten feet.
Fate of the favorites
Dustin Johnson (68) – Found only half the fairways and 11 of 18 greens in regulation, but made four birdies on his back nine (the front). Slight concern that pattern of last week’s pre-weekend rounds is maintained: plenty of birdies offset by a lot of dropped shots.
Justin Thomas (73) – Hit the turn in 1-under, but one bogey and a double bogey-7 on the way home hurt. Finding only half the greens in regulation made it a struggle.
Brooks Koepka (69) – Struggled to give himself birdie looks. Of the four he made one was on a par-5, two were from outside 20-feet and only one was due to an approach inside ten feet
Rory McIlroy (71) – Found only six of 14 fairways, approach play better (14 of 18 greens in regulation), but gave himself only one look at birdie from inside 10 feet (on 18 and he took it).
Quotes
Tyrrell Hatton (69) – “It was fairly tough. The wind has all over the places, but to be honest the greens were so inconsistent with firmness. It was awkward. It was very difficult to get the ball close. I’ll take it.”
Justin Rose (65) – “Being bogey-free is testament to being mentally strong. Today was tricky. Very pleasing. Last week I played well tee to green, but had a nightmare on the greens. I worked hard on pace before today’s round. Last year I didn’t have a good year but top tenned my way through the FedEx Cup and made my year seem better. This year I can do better than that.”
Road to victory at TPC Boston
2017 Justin Thomas – R1: 30th, R2: 15th, R3: 1st
2016 Rory McIlroy – R1: 67th, R2: 30th, R3: 7th
2015 Rickie Fowler – R1: 2nd, R2: 3rd, R3: 2nd
2014 Chris Kirk – R1: 65th, R2: 17th, R3: 3rd
2013 Henrik Stenson – R1: 23rd, R2: 2nd, R3: 2nd
Notes: As the table below shows, the pace setters have a poor record in Boston and the above numbers show that recent winners have been sat at the back of the peloton after 18 holes. It’s a common thread. Of the 15 winners here seven were outside the top 20 at this stage and nine were T11 or worse.
Fate of the halfway leaders at TPC Boston – where did they finish?
2017 – Dustin Johnson – 18th
2016 – James Hahn – 5th, Ryan Moore – 8th
2015 – Brendon De Jonge – 22nd
2014 – Ryan Palmer – 16th
2013 – Brian Davis – 8th, Phil Mickelson – 41st
Notes: A remarkably poor record for the pace setters and it is a trend that goes further back than just the last five years. Indeed Troy Matteson (in 2011) ended the week T77. In all, 20 players have owned or shared the first round lead and only two converted the victory.
Focus on – the Bubble Boys
Only the top 70 in the rankings will progress to the BMW Championship. How are those players currently around the number currently faring according to the provisional rankings?
65. Stewart Cink – 72 now ranked 73rd
66. Jason Kokrak – 72 now ranked 74th
67. Nick Watney – 72 now ranked 76th
68. Jimmy Walker – 60 no change
69. Louis Oosthuizen – 71 now ranked 75th
70. Kevin Streelman – 78 now ranked 79th
71. Tyrrell Hatton – 69 now ranked 63rd
72. C.T. Pan – 69 now ranked 64th
73. Bronson Burgoon – 74 now ranked 81st
74. Matt Kuchar – 71 now ranked 78th
75. Charley Hoffman – 73 now ranked 84th
Focus on – Jason Day
It would be pretty tough to argue that the Australian is in a slump. He is a two-time winner this year (the Farmers Insurance Open and Wells Fargo Championship), he finished top 20 in three of the four 2018 majors, and he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his last five starts. But on the other hand since his T5 in The Players Championship he has been consistently misfiring. He was T4 at halfway in the Memorial (finished T44) and he was T6 or better at the Travelers Championship, Bridgestone Invitational and PGA Championship before going backwards every time. It’s not quite happening and his Thursday lap at TPC Boston confirmed it. Prior to this year he averaged 68.88 per round, had broken 70 in round one seven times out of ten and had a worst score (in 40 laps) of 75. This Friday? A birdie-free 76.
Focus on – Justin Rose
This is the Englishman’s tenth solo first round lead on any tour since he turned pro and whilst he has only progressed to two wins, he has a fine record of maintaining the pace through 36 holes. In fact on all previous nine occasions he remained in the top three. Moreover in the last nine times he has held a solo or shared advantage he has also remained in the top three.
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