2018 NFL predictions: Who will win this year’s awards and Super Bowl 53

Sundays are no longer for family time and going outside. Starting Sept. 9, Sundays are for football again.

There will be no shortage of intrigue when the 2018 NFL season kicks off Thursday with a showdown between the NFC champions that could withstand a Patriots comeback — the Philadelphia Eagles — and the NFC champs that decidedly could not — the Atlanta Falcons. From there, the league drops right into gear, matching up potential playoff teams (49ers–Vikings, Chiefs–Chargers, Cowboys–Panthers) and quarterback battles that pit the league’s old guard against what could be its next generation of stars (Patriots-Texans, Bears–Packers, Steelers–Browns).

Week 1 won’t decide how the rest of the season pans out, but it will set the tone for 2018. Last fall saw a predictable Super Bowl run from New England and a much less obvious Super Bowl title for the Philadelphia Eagles — but both teams had to overcome early defeats to the Chiefs to get there. Players like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson needed some little lead time before settling in for breakout seasons that were eventually curtailed by ACL tears. Others, like Jared Goff and Case Keenum, put forgettable 2016 campaigns in the rear view to lead their teams to the postseason.

There will be a lot to unpack over the next 17 weeks. New stars will rise and fade as the league reacts and adjusts to a new and unpredictable season. A chunk of 2017’s playoff teams will fall back to the pack, replaced in the postseason by fresh faces. Some late-round rookie will send you scrambling to your fantasy league’s waiver wire with an out-of-nowhere breakout performance, only to earn four touches the following week.

Predicting anything outside of another Patriots’ AFC East title is a fool’s errand. And, as such, we feel qualified to peel back the layers of the upcoming year and take our best educated guesses at this fall’s biggest winners. Here’s how we see 2018 shaking out:

MVP

Todd Gurley, Rams — Christian D’Andrea
Aaron Rodgers, Packers — Charles McDonald
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers — Adam Stites
Drew Brees, Saints — Sarah Hardy
Aaron Rodgers, Packers — Harry Lyles Jr.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers — Ryan Van Bibber
Aaron Rodgers, Packers — James Brady

Why I picked Gurley: Gurley would need a historic season to claim MVP honors — but with the Rams now loaded with offensive options who can prevent opponents from loading the line of scrimmage, he’ll have the space to get there. He came back strong from an underwhelming sophomore campaign to prove himself in 2017 as one of the league’s most exciting playmakers; in 2018, a season with 2,300 total yards isn’t out of the question. If he gets there, he’ll put himself among the company of other tailback MVPs like Adrian Peterson (2,314 in 2012), LaDainian Tomlinson (2,323 in 2006), and Marshall Faulk (2,189 in 2000). After gaining 2,093 yards in 15 games last fall, that’s a reasonable jump. — Christian D’Andrea

Why I picked Bell: It’s clear at this point that Bell isn’t going to be in Pittsburgh in 2019. This is his last rodeo with the Steelers and that means there’s no reason for the team not to squeeze every last drop of value out of Bell before he goes. He had a league-leading 406 touches in 2017, and now the Steelers have every reason to crank that up even higher. It takes serious stats for a running back to top a quarterback for NFL MVP, but give Bell the ball more than 420 times — something only DeMarco Murray has done in the decade — and it may be doable. — Adam Stites

Offensive Player of the Year

Aaron Rodgers, Packers — Christian D’Andrea
Deshaun Watson, Texans — Charles McDonald
Aaron Rodgers, Packers — Adam Stites
Antonio Brown, Steelers — Sarah Hardy
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers — Harry Lyles Jr.
Alvin Kamara, Saints — Ryan Van Bibber
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers — James Brady

Why I picked Watson: Deshaun Watson was on his way to a historic rookie season before he unfortunately tore his ACL after Week 8 showdown against the Seattle Seahawks. Some aspects of Watson’s rookie performance are going to be unsustainable. He threw a touchdown on a ridiculous 9.3 percent of his passing attempts, which would’ve finished 12th all time (tied with Hall of Famers Otto Graham and Ken Stabler) if he had been able to finish the season. Regression will hit Watson, but he should still remain one of the top offensive players in the league. Being able to throw to Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller once again will help, and Watson has the athleticism to overcome a poor offensive line — something that he dealt with a year ago. Watson should still be a machine on the field if he can stay healthy for 16 games. — Charles McDonald