NASCAR 2018 Cup series playoff breakdown projections everything you need to know Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Jimmie Johnson won’t race Indianapolis Motor Speedway much differently Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBCSN) from the way he raced at Darlington Raceway before his night ended early with a bum oil pump.

He will have to pay close attention to his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman.

The seven-time Cup champion sits 19 points ahead of Bowman for 15th on the playoff grid entering the NASCAR Cup series’ final regular-season race. If a driver outside of the current 16-driver playoff grid wins at Indianapolis, that would leave Johnson and Bowman fighting for the final spot in the playoffs.

“We were racing the No. 88 [of Bowman] and trying to beat him to make sure we would be OK [for Indy],” Johnson said after Darlington. “We were both two laps down [at Darlington] and kind of racing each other. I would assume that would be the same thing next weekend.”

Johnson didn’t mean that he would assume they’d be two laps down at Indianapolis, just that they would be counting points. Bowman picked up 13 points on Johnson at Darlington.

“There is no need to flip out now,” said Johnson, who has four Brickyard 400 wins (2006, 2008, 2009, 2012). “We have had a pretty rough year to this point. We have been working hard, unfortunately just haven’t had the results.

“We will keep working hard. There is no quit in myself or this team.”

Here’s a look at the playoff breakdown and what’s at stake at Indianapolis. Reminder: There are 60 points maximum for a race win (10 points to win a stage and then 40 points to win a race) and a maximum of 55 points for second.

Who’s in?

By wins (10 drivers and their number of wins): Kyle Busch (six), Kevin Harvick (seven with one that doesn’t count toward playoff seeding), Martin Truex Jr. (four), Clint Bowyer (two), Kurt Busch (one), Joey Logano (one), Brad Keselowski (one), Chase Elliott (one), Erik Jones (one), Austin Dillon (one).

By points (4 drivers): Kyle Larson (178 points ahead of 15th-place Johnson), Ryan Blaney (150), Denny Hamlin (133), Aric Almirola (76).

On the bubble

Johnson and Bowman. With just 19 points separating them and 20 points available in the stages, Johnson won’t know where he would have to finish until after the second stage to make sure he’s safe in case of an upset from a driver outside the top 16.

While Johnson has four wins and seven top-10s in 16 starts at Indy, Bowman has just two Cup starts there, having finished 40th in 2014 for BK Racing and 43rd in 2015 for Tommy Baldwin Racing.

Must win

There are 14 drivers who must win to get in: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, Daniel Suarez, Jamie McMurray, William Byron, Chris Buescher, AJ Allmendinger, David Ragan, Michael McDowell, Kasey Kahne, Bubba Wallace, Ty Dillon, Matt DiBenedetto.

Of them, four have won at Indy: Kahne (2017), Newman (2013), Menard (2011) and McMurray (2010).

Regular-season championship

Only two drivers — Kyle Busch and Harvick — are in contention to win the regular-season championship. Busch has a 39-point edge on Harvick. If Busch finishes 15th or better, he clinches the regular-season championship.

Playoff points and projections

Drivers who finish in the top 10 of the final regular-season standings receive playoff points on a 15-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scale. So winning the regular-season title is like winning another race when it comes to playoff points.

Playoff points are points that drivers carry through each round of the playoffs that are added to their total when the points are reset at the start of each round.

Here are the current playoff drivers ranked by their current playoff points and where they might end up in the final regular-season standings depending on their Indianapolis finish. There are seven playoff points available at Indy — as in any three-stage race (one for a stage win, five for a race win) — so a good day at Indianapolis could be a big boost entering the playoffs.

Kevin Harvick (40 playoff points): As noted earlier, he’s 39 regular-season points behind Busch. He’s 116 points ahead of third-place Truex, so there’s no chance of being caught for second. He will earn an additional 15 or 10 playoff points depending on his finish.

Kyle Busch (35): He’s in good shape to earn the 15-point regular-season bonus, with the worst he could do a 10-point bonus.

Martin Truex Jr. (27): He will finish third or fourth in the standings. He’s 48 points ahead of Kurt Busch. Truex clinches third, and the eight bonus points, if he finishes 24th or better.

Clint Bowyer (10): He’s eighth in the standings and could finish anywhere from fourth to 11th but most likely will finish somewhere from sixth to ninth. From Bowyer’s view, here’s how fourth to 11th currently rank: Kurt Busch (+58), Joey Logano (+41), Brad Keselowski (+8), Kyle Larson (+6), Bowyer, Ryan Blaney (-22), Denny Hamlin (-39), Chase Elliott (-40).

Brad Keselowski (9): He is sixth in the standings and could finish anywhere from fourth to 11th but likely will finish somewhere sixth to eighth. From Keselowski’s view, here’s how fourth to 11th currently rank: Kurt Busch (+50), Logano (+33), Keselowski, Larson (-2), Bowyer (-8), Blaney (-30), Hamlin (-47), Elliott (-48).

Joey Logano (8): He’s fifth in the standings and could finish anywhere from fourth to eighth but likely will finish fourth or fifth. From Logano’s view, here’s how fourth to eighth currently rank: Kurt Busch (+17), Logano, Keselowski (-33), Larson (-35), Bowyer (-41).

Chase Elliott (8): He’s 11th in the standings and could finish anywhere from sixth to 13th but likely will finish somewhere ninth to 11th. From Elliott’s view, here’s how sixth to 13th rank: Keselowski (+48), Larson (+46), Bowyer (+40), Blaney (+18), Hamlin (+1), Elliott, Aric Almirola (-56), Erik Jones (-58).

Kurt Busch (7): He’s fourth in the standings and will finish anywhere from third to eighth but likely will finish fourth or fifth. From his view, here’s how third to eighth rank: Truex (+48), Busch, Logano (-17), Keselowski (-50), Larson (-52), Bowyer (-58).

Ryan Blaney (5): Blaney is ninth in the standings and could finish anywhere from sixth to 11th but likely will finish somewhere ninth to 11th. From his view, here’s how sixth to 11th rank: Keselowski (+30), Larson (+28), Bowyer (+22), Blaney, Hamlin (-17), Elliott (-18).

Erik Jones (5): At 13th in the standings, the only way Jones makes the top 10, at 59 points behind Hamlin, is to sweep both stages and win, and for Hamlin to finish 36th or worse.

Austin Dillon (5): At 18th in the standings, he can’t earn any regular-season bonus points.

Kyle Larson (2): At seventh in the standings, Larson could finish anywhere from fourth to 11th but likely will finish somewhere sixth to eighth. From his view, here is how fourth to 11th currently rank: Kurt Busch (+52), Logano (+35), Keselowski (+2), Larson, Bowyer (-6), Blaney (-28), Hamlin (-45), Elliott (-46).