Well, so much for that fast start. Week 2 kicked my butt. Not good. Not good.
One of my theories worked, at least – fade the Bills huge until Vegas catches up with how badly they are going to get pummeled. We got two easy wins out of it … and now there is a 17-point spread for Bills/Vikings (I still like the Vikings, but I don’t love it and won’t make it a best bet). As for the fading the Colts, turns out that Week 1 defensive performance wasn’t an aberration. And somehow the Texans found a way to lose, outright, to a Titans team with no tackles or quarterback, with a fake-punt touchdown having a lot do with it. Shame on me. I haven’t been big on Houston at all and think they have real problems, I just didn’t think it was so bad that they couldn’t topple the Titans.
So it’s time to hit the reboot button, already. That 1-2 was ugly. I’m going to pause a little bit, refocus and let a little more football play out. Only going to lock in on two games this week, and going where I see the most glaring talent and coaching mismatches. Not going to get too cute. Not going to recommend you invest in any teams that don’t have a winning culture and established strengths.
Patriots -6.5 at Lions
Bill Belichick isn’t going to take it easy on former protege Matt Patricia, or his struggling defense. Josh McDaniels just got to see how fellow savant play-caller Kyle Shanahan – and former Pats QB Jimmy Garoppolo – dealt with the Lions defense and its varied flaws. He already knows Patricia inside out, and what he is trying to accomplish. No one does bounce-back games like Tom Brady, and the mere presence of Josh Gordon as a decoy on the outside can’t hurt given the state of New England’s skill-position talent. Lions fans are already gun-shy after watching their team get embarrassed at home by an AFC East team in primetime in Week 1, and they will be ready to turn on Matt Stafford and Co. from the get-go if they cant get off to a fast start Sunday night. I figure Belichick suffocates Golden Tate and forces someone else to beat his defense. Still not sold on the Lions’ long-absent run game. Give me Brady in a dome against a middling pass rush all week and twice on Sunday.
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Jaguars -6.5 vs. Titans
Notice a trend here? Yeah, could be a let-down game for the Jags after beating the Pats last week. I totally get that … but it would have to be a helluva letdown to lose this one at home. I don’t care if it’s Blaine Gabbert or Marcus Mariota under center, hard to see Tennessee taking two in a row against AFC South foes. I could make the case the Titans are due for a let-down as well, as they went all out a week ago, guys were running around the sidelines like mad, the energy was beyond high. Can they keep that up two weeks in a road, now on the road, with a rookie head coach? The Titans lack an identity on offense and are relying on trick plays can only help you so much. And unlike the Texans a week ago, the Jags do have a pass rush and shutdown guys in the secondary. Blake Bortles is playing the best football of his life and the reality here is that, even if he regressed into a shell, as long as he stays away from the pick-sixes his team should be at least a touchdown better than this particular opponent.
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