Tribune reporters Rich Campbell and Dan Wiederer are picking against the spread and each other this season.
Last week, Campbell came back to Earth and Wiederer found a spark — but at least both are in the black.
(10 points for a win, minus-10 for a loss)
Season scoreboard: Campbell 50, Wiederer 30
Game of the Week
Ravens (plus 3) at Steelers
Campbell (2-1): Ravens. One of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries often features close games. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. The Ravens can win outright, so I’ll go with value here. They have the NFL’s top-ranked defense, and their passing attack is back from the dead. The Steelers are on a short week and already lost at home to the Chiefs.
Wiederer (1-2): Steelers. Did a Monday night victory over the Buccaneers calm the dysfunction in Pittsburgh? Is the Steelers offense too dynamic for the Ravens to keep up with? Sure. And probably. Still, this one could come down to the final drive.
Lock of the Week
Campbell (1-2): Colts (minus 1) vs. Texans. The Texas are 0 for their last 8 against the spread dating to last year. Is Las Vegas still stuck on the hot stretch they had last season? Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is off to a modest start with a 59.4 completion percentage. Colts win, Colts cover.
Wiederer (1-2): Cowboys (minus-3) vs. Lions. Give me Ezekiel Elliott at home against a vulnerable Lions run defense that is allowing 149.3 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt — both league worsts. After last week’s upset of the Patriots, the Lions get another reality check.
Upset of the week
Campbell (2-1): Lions (+130) at Cowboys. The Lions are averaging 23.3 points per game. The Cowboys? Only 13.7. I started selling on Dak Prescott after his rookie season, thinking he was available in the fourth round for a reason. It’s fishy that Vegas doesn’t like the Lions more after beating the Patriots, but I’ll back them to win after they scored 27 and 26 in the last two weeks.
Wiederer (1-2): Cardinals (+150) vs. Seahawks. The Seahawks are 3-point favorites against a sloppy Cardinals squad. But … if the line looks too good to be true and smells too good to be true, it’s probably too good to be true. Yes, the Cardinals are a mess. Yes, rookie Josh Rosen is making his first career start. Yes, the Cardinals are averaging fewer than seven points per game. But … give me the Cardinals.
Just for fun
Campbell (1-2): Browns (plus 3) at Raiders. Baker Mayfield is the most fun player in the NFL right now, so why not take the points and hop on the bandwagon? The Browns are 3-0 ATS, including a frisky showing on the road against the Saints. Is their anything funnier than the Raiders ranking 32nd in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt? Khalil Mack looks pretty good in Bears navy.
Wiederer (3-0): Browns (plus-3) at Raiders. If fun is what we’re after here, then grab a ticket for the Baker Mayfield train. Last September, much of Ohio was incensed by Mayfield’s midfield flag-planting antics after Oklahoma’s win at Ohio State. This September, much of Ohio believes Mayfield could be the savior of the NFL’s most hapless franchise. All aboard!
Stay away
Campbell (3-0): Dolphins (plus 6½) at Patriots. The Pats are 1-2 straight up and ATS, with their only win coming at home against the (lousy) Texans in Week 1. Are the Pats not good? Are Adam Gase’s 3-0 Dolphins for real? Uhhhhh, yes? This line opened at 7½, and I would feel better if Tom Brady wasn’t working with the hook.
Wiederer (2-1): Broncos (plus-5) vs. Chiefs. As red hot as Patrick Mahomes is, getting more than four points in a division game at home seems hard to pass up. Still, Mahomes is red hot. Proceed with caution.
Close to home
Bears (minus 3) vs. Buccaneers
Campbell (2-1): Buccaneers. The value is with the underdogs in a game either team can win. The Bears defense is legit, but they did lose to the only good offense they have faced this season. Can they pressure Ryan Fitzpatrick enough to compensate for Prince Amukamara’s absence because of a hamstring strain? The guess here is no.
Wiederer (3-0): Buccaneers. I’ve been thoroughly impressed by the Bears’ defense this month. But they have yet to face an offense with this many weapons. Amukamara’s absence from the secondary is significant. And Matt Nagy’s offense hasn’t shown it can keep up in a high-octane game like this one might be.
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