Crunching The Numbers To Pick NASCAR’s Next Champ

The time has come to examine 20 key statistical categories for the four drivers — Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Joey Logano — who will be competing for the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series championship on Sunday in Homestead, Fla.

Truex won the race on the mile-and-a-half oval at Homestead last year and is the defending Cup champion, but Harvick and Busch have been the most dominant drivers this season. Truex and Busch are in Toyotas, and Harvick and Logano are in Fords.

(No Chevrolets are in the title race this year.)

Make sure to read this all the way through, because there is a prediction based on these numbers at the end. Statistics from Racing Reference. 

But before we get to it, one quirky fact that NASCAR purists have probably already noticed: the home states of all four drivers (Harvick, California; Busch, Nevada; Truex, New Jersey, and Logano, Connecticut) went for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

0 did-not-finishes in nine playoff races for Truex, 1 for each of the other three.

1 Cup championship each for Harvick, Busch and Truex. Logano has none.

1 race victory each at Homestead for Busch, Truex and Harvick. None for Logano.

2 poles in nine playoff races each for Busch and Harvick. Logano has 1, Truex none.

2 playoff victories for Busch. One each for Harvick (which NASCAR said he broke the rules to get) and Logano, none for Truex.

4 victories for Harvick this year on mile-and-a-half tracks, like Homestead, compared with 3 for Busch, 1 for Truex and none for Logano.

5 top-five playoff finishes for Logano, 4 for Busch and Truex, 3 for Harvick.

7 top-10 playoff finishes for Logano, 6 each for Busch and Harvick, 5 for Truex.

6.8 average finishing position at Homestead for Harvick. Truex is 11.5, Logano is 14.9, and Busch is 18.5.

8 victories this season for Busch and Harvick (one of which came by cheating), 4 for Truex, 2 for Logano.

8.4 average finish this year for Busch. Harvick had a 9.0, Logano a 10.9 and Truex an 11.0.

9 top-five and 15 top-10 finishes at Homestead for Harvick. Truex has 4 top-five and 9 top-10 finishes at Homestead; Busch has 3 and 6, and Logano has 2 and 4.

17 previous races at Homestead for Harvick. Busch and Truex have 13 each, and Logano has 9.

32 races for Busch and Logano in which each was running at the finish. Harvick had 31, Truex 30.

51 career victories for Busch. Harvick has 45, Logano 20 and Truex 19.

190 top-five finishes for Harvick, compared with 182 for Busch, 103 for Logano and 86 for Truex.

343 points in nine playoff races from Logano. Truex has 332, Busch has 315 and Harvick has 301.

610 career races in which Harvick has been running at the finish. Busch has 444, Truex has 419, and Logano has 332.

15,829 career laps led for Busch. Harvick has led 13,023, Truex 7,515 and Logano 5,017.

Harvick, 42, has the clear edge in experience over Truex, 38; Busch, 33, and Logano, 28. But Logano has been consistent and has done well this year, especially in the playoffs.

So, awarding points on a 4-3-2-1 basis for each of the 20 categories, here is the way they should finish: Harvick, 60; Busch, 52; Truex, 44, Logano, 38.

So Harvick is your 2018 Cup champion. And he won’t even have to cheat this time!