In short: What the headline says.
In slightly longer: Robinson Cano’s name has surfaced in trade rumors this offseason, with the Mariners reportedly looking to shed part or all of the five years and $120 million remaining on the eight-time All-Star’s contract. Bafflingly, Cano — while five seasons deep into the 10-year megadeal that will pay him $24 million a year until he’s 40 — got suspended 80 games for performance-enhancing drug use in May, likely costing himself first-ballot Hall of Fame status in the process.
Some baseball fans insist they can never again cheer for a player outed as a cheater, and all those in that subset certainly have the right to hope their favorite club doesn’t acquire the infielder. And cost-conscious clubs, obviously, have every reason to be wary of taking on a nine-figure commitment to a 36-year-old player.
But one intuitive concern about Cano’s immediate and longterm future as a ballplayer rings hollow when examined closely: Players popped for steroid use, though subject to far more rigorous testing upon their return, do not really seem to play any worse after suspensions. Section 3. D. of MLB’s Joint Drug Agreement explains that guys disciplined for PED use face six unannounced urine tests and three unannounced blood tests every year for the rest of their careers.
Alex Rodriguez’s career numbers went through a steep decline throughout the time he was reportedly being treated by Biogenesis founder Tony Bosch, then rebounded in 2015 after his return from suspension. Nelson Cruz owned an .808 across the three seasons prior to his own 50-game Biogenesis ban in 2013 and has rocked an .897 mark in the five seasons since. Starling Marte spent 80 games on the shelf for using Nadrolone in 2017, then posted numbers almost identical to his career norms in 2018.
You can find select post-hoc examples of players appearing to get worse: Ryan Braun remained productive but never returned to the MVP heights of his time before suspension. Melky Cabrera was in the midst of a career year when he got caught using in 2012 and struggled upon his return in 2013. But regression is a very common thing among all baseball players, and there are really no obvious examples of a steroid suspension marking an undeniable turning point in a player’s performance.
Naturally, some will contend that this means the cheaters are still cheating and getting away with it, and that MLB needs to do a better job cracking down. And obviously, a player having been caught doping means he’s willing to do it in the first place, and the examples of Marlon Byrd and Manny Ramirez, among others, show the risk of recidivism. That’s a legitimate concern in the case of acquiring a guy who has been suspended. But it’s a fairly small one, as the overwhelming majority of players caught once never get caught again.
Cano himself slashed .317/.363/.497 in 41 games after returning from suspension in 2018. He has long been a great player, he has remained a great player into his mid-30s, and there’s really nothing besides his age to suggest he’ll stop being a great player anytime soon.
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