Measuring the Value of Cuban Players

Baseball has been a way of life in Cuba, and the impact of Cubans in Major League Baseball has been large – both on the field and financially to the sport. Just looking at the 49 Cubans who defected since 2000 and made the Majors, their estimated total value has been $1.73 billion (adjusted to 2018), with $928 million in total salaries paid.

However, players have had to defect or be trafficked out of Cuba, until the recent announcement of a three-year agreement among MLB, the MLBPA, and the Cuban Baseball Federation. The agreement finally allows legal and open pathways for Cuban players to come and play in the US and Canada. “For years, Major League Baseball has been seeking to end the trafficking of baseball players from Cuba by criminal organizations by creating a safe and legal alternative for those players to sign with Major League clubs,” Rob Manfred, MLB commissioner of MLB stated. “We believe that this agreement accomplishes that objective and will allow the next generation of Cuban players to pursue their dream without enduring many of the hardships experienced by current and former Cuban players who have played Major League Baseball.” For details on the agreement itself, see John Perrotto’s Forbes article here.

Famous Cubans over history have included Hall of Famer Tony Perez, Minnie Minoso, Rafael Palmero, Luis Tiant, Jose Canseco, Tony Oliva, among others. But what have more recent players performed, and was it worth it for MLB teams? The answer has been a resounding yes. Below are the yearly number of defectors since 2000 that went on to play in the Majors:

The Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers initially signed Cuban defectors the most:

So, the higher in the chart the more value ; the more to the right the more salary. Escobar and Ramirez were the two big standouts in ROI, and Cespedes, Puig, Chapman were other top contributors, as shown in the chart. The players above the line added more value compared to salary, compared to the average of the Cuban defectors:

Overall, batters were a better ROI than pitchers. Batters netted a net value of $19.6mm while pitchers $14mm.

Batters:

• 65% of these players were batters:
• Produced $1.35 billion in value offensively to their MLB organizations, but cost $7 million defensively. These values are based on today’s market, based on $8 million per WAR
• On average, the value of a player was $43.5 million offensively and -$232k defensively while incurring an average of $23.6mm salary (over their career and through the 2018 season)
• The top-ranking offensive players were Yunel Escobar ($224 million in value), José Abreu ($164mm), Yoenis Céspedes (162mm), Alexei Ramírez ($160mm), Yasiel Puig ($118mm), and Kendrys Morales ($100mm).
• The biggest offensive flops, with negative value, were Bárbaro Cañizares (-$2.4mm), Rusney Castillo (-$2.4mm), Erisbel Arruebarrena (-$2.4mm), and Henry Urrutia (-$1.6mm)
• The top-ranking defensive players were Alexei Ramírez ($68.8 million in value), Leonys Martín ($60mm), Adeiny Hechavarria ($48mm), Yunel Escobar ($47.2mm), and José Iglesias ($39.2mm)
• The biggest defensive flops were  Kendrys Morales (negative -$68.8 million in value), José Abreu (-$48.8mm), Yasmany Tomás (-$39.2mm), Dayán Viciedo (-$35.2mm), and Jorge Soler (-$28.8mm)
• Defensively, most players were negative in value (19), only 10 were positive, and 3 neutral

Pitchers:

• 35% of these players were pitchers:
• Produced $411 million in pitching value to organizations
• On average the value of a pitcher was $24.2mm while incurring an average of $9.6mm salary (over their career and through the 2018 season)
• The top-ranking pitchers were Aroldis Chapman ($128 million in value), José Contreras ($108mm), José Fernández ($102.4mm), Raisel Iglesias ($64mm), and Roenis Elías ($19.2mm)
• The biggest flops were Odrisamer Despaigne (-$18.4 million in value), Adrián Hernández (-$5.6mm), Raúl Valdés (-$4mm), Alay Soler (-$4mm)
• Ten players added value while seven were negative in value

Moving forward, eligible players needing 6+ years of service time or is at least 25 years old. Financially, the Cuban baseball federation would receive 15-25% of the signing bonus, which is still a bargain considering the past 18 years of ROI coming out of Cuba. This agreement makes sense on multiple levels, and if implemented will continue to improve the quality of players in our great game.