OK, now that this is done, on to next year.
It took until the final day of February, but Bryce Harper agreed to a free-agent record $325 million contract nine days after Manny Machado had set the mark at $300 million.
But you know what took a really long time? Someone to unseat Alex Rodriguez. In some form ($252 million) or another ($275 million) A-Rod had held the free agent record for 19 years (after Mike Hampton had held it for two days in the winter of 2000).
In between the long-awaited signings of Machado and Harper came the seven-year, $234 million extension for Colorado’s Nolan Arenado, removing the projected best free agent from next year’s market even before his walk season. That it occurred in the same week that Aaron Hicks and the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas also signed long term before their walk year raised the possibility that consecutive chilly free-agent markets are moving players to act before going out into the cold.
An impressive class still looms on the horizon, even with Starling Marte and NL MVP Christian Yelich having signed long term a while back (both would have been free agents after 2019 had they not). But how many more of the top 10 for the offseason of 2019-20 might go before hitting the market?
1. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
St. Louis did not obtain the slugging first baseman from Arizona with just 2019 in mind. The Cardinals’ conceit is that once a player experiences their environment, they will want to stay — like Mark McGwire, Matt Holliday and now even Mikolas. Recent free agency has been tougher on first baseman and players over 30, and Goldschmidt is a first baseman who will play this season at 31, so perhaps he is susceptible to do a deal. But this is not just some guy — Goldschmidt has four top-six MVP finishes in the last six seasons.
2. Justin Verlander, Astros
For now — even with Mikolas out — the next market projects toward strong starting pitching. And the best of it is considerably younger than Verlander. But I wonder if a team that feels it is a championship contender might be willing to, say, go two years at $70 million to land Verlander. At $35 million per, that would usurp Zack Greinke ($34.42 million) for the highest average value ever.
Verlander might be 36, but his year-plus in Houston has been as good as anything in a Hall of Fame career, and one more year of that in 2019 and even analytic clubs will dismiss his birth certificate.
3. Gerrit Cole, Astros
Houston lost Charlie Morton to free agency, Dallas Keuchel is still on the market, Lance McCullers Jr. is out all of 2019 after Tommy John surgery, and Verlander and Cole are entering their walk year. The Astros are at an interesting moment, and so is Cole, who pitches at just 28 this year. A strong campaign might push him into Max Scherzer (seven years, $210 million)/David Price (seven years, $217 million) company.
4. Chris Sale, Red Sox
On talent/career accomplishment to date, Sale might be No. 1 on this list. But there has been worry about how someone who is built so reedy and throws so hard will hold up since he was drafted. His shoulder problems of 2018 only exacerbated those concerns. But this is a lefty who has been a starter seven seasons and never finished worse than sixth in Cy Young voting.
5. Anthony Rendon, Nationals
He is not as good as Arenado, but he is pretty darn good and now will not have to compete in free agency with Arenado. That is if Rendon gets to free agency. His agent, Scott Boras, typically has his best clients test the market, but he did have Stephen Strasburg sign long term with Washington rather than test the waters. Boras still has to get Dallas Keuchel and a few others signed, but then can turn his attention to an organization that has seemed more willing to go long with Rendon over Harper.
6. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
What becomes of Didi Gregorius? Does he return well after Tommy John surgery? If so, do the Yankees follow through with their desire to tie him up long term? If so, Bogaerts would have no real shortstop competition in free agency. And he plays this season at just 26.
7. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox
He was frustrated to wait all last offseason and finally get less than he hoped, five years at $110 million from the Red Sox. But he got an out after Year 2 and in Year 1 might have been the majors’ best hitter. If he repeats that in 2019, teams might ignore he would be coming out after his age-31 season and mainly as a DH — such is the greatness of his bat.
8. Josh Donaldson, Braves
The most interesting walk-year case. He took a one-year, $23 million contract to see if he can rebuild his value in 2019. If he does, he will give clubs an alternative to Rendon — albeit entering his age-34 season. But he has endured various injuries that have derailed him the past two years.
9. Yasiel Puig, Reds
Even if he has a terrific season, will clubs be frightened by questions about temperament/work habits? He goes from Los Angeles to a hitting haven in Cincinnati and will play at just 28. He has a 127 OPS-plus from 2013-18. Machado is at 122.
10. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
San Francisco used the 10th pick in 2007 to take Bumgarner and the sixth pick in 2009 to grab Zack Wheeler. Their trendlines are interesting. Bumgarner’s health and performance the past two seasons have not been of championship vintage. Wheeler was among the majors’ best pitchers the final four months of 2018. If this continues, Wheeler actually could end up being more desirable in the marketplace (that includes July trades if the Giants and/or Mets are out of it). And, again, there are a lot of potentially interesting starters entering their walk years, including Jhoulys Chacin, Cole Hamels, Rich Hill, Rick Porcello and Alex Wood — and throw in Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly after missing 2018 following Tommy John surgery, plus if Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez have any chance to revive interest in their abilities.
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