From free agent acquisitions to high-scoring stars, no one is safe from the ups-and-downs that come with season-to-season scoring totals. Here are five players who are likely to see a dip in their numbers next season.
Before you even ask, no, the following doesn’t concern William Karlsson. At this point, it seems to be a fool’s errand to even continue to expect the Vegas Golden Knights center to have some significant statistical drop-off.
When it comes to Karlsson, the expectation was that around mid-season, he’d come down to earth. Or maybe it was by the trade deadline. And then there were those who were of the mind the end of the regular season, after Karlsson had scored 43 goals and 78 points, would signal the end of his magical scoring run. So, how about the playoffs? Oh, you know, he just scored seven goals and 15 points in 20 games during the post-season, too. You get the point. (Or does Karlsson get another one added to his total? We’re having a hard time keeping track.)
Just because Karlsson has been left off this list, however, doesn’t mean it’s bereft of any star power. You will find a few standouts and notable names below, including one of Karlsson’s teammates. Here are five players bound to a slip in their point total next season:
DAVID PERRON, ST. LOUIS BLUES
Let’s preface this by saying that it’s not as though Perron’s going to return to St. Louis and suddenly fall off the map. Signed to be a second-line winger, chances are he fills that role to perfection. However, Perron is coming off of a career-best 16-goal, 66-point season, one that saw him eclipse his past career high point total by nine points and his previous second-best campaign by 16 points. Prior to last season, he hadn’t eclipsed the 50-point plateau in three consecutive campaigns despite remaining relatively healthy.
A more realistic expectation for Perron, 30, is that he plays to his career averages. That’s to say that the Blues are likely to get the 50-point player that he has been in the past rather than the near point-per-game assist machine that he was last season. The good news is that chances are he floats up closer to the 20-goal plateau come next season. That’s a mark he’s reached three times in his career, and with more weapons around him and some additional power play time, Perron stands to light the lamp a few more times even if his overall point totals dips.
CLAUDE GIROUX, PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Surely the suggestion that Giroux won’t score 102 points again next season won’t rile anyone in Philadelphia. Not a chance. That’s why we feel safe in suggesting that the 30-year-old is due a bit of a statistical correction next season.
Reason being is that no forward among the top 50 scorers last season had a higher rate of secondary points — Giroux had a whopping 34.3 percent of his 102-point total come from secondary assists — nor did any player rack up as many secondary helpers. In fact, his secondary assists accounted for more than half of his overall assist total as only 33 of his 68 assists were of the primary variety. It’s also somewhat concerning that Giroux’s shooting percentage was so significantly higher last season than it has been in recent years. At 17.6 percent in 2017-18, Giroux out-shot his average percentage by more than six percent and improved year-over-year by upwards of 10 percent.
So, what’s more realistic for Giroux? If he increases his shot total and shoots his career average, he should pot around 22 goals next season. As for his overall point total, it would be realistic to assume he floats around the 85-point mark. It’s still more than a point per game, but a downturn of nearly 20 total points.
JOSH BAILEY, NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Some might posit that Mat Barzal is due for the biggest statistical regression. You know, fear the sophomore slump and all that. But the thing about Barzal is that he was largely responsible for his own production last season and played primarily alongside Jordan Eberle and Andrew Ladd. So while Barzal might face tougher competition, he’s not going to face nearly the drastic change of Bailey, who is going from spending all but 303 minutes alongside John Tavares to living life alongside a new pivot. True, it could be that Bailey, 28, ends up alongside Barzal. That would seem to be the obvious fit. But Bailey’s most obvious asset is his playmaking ability, which made him work well with a natural goal scorer like Tavares.
There’s also the matter of Bailey’s offense seeing an unsustainably large jump last season. Prior to last season, Bailey’s average points per 60 minutes has been about 1.75, with him twice registering 2.1 or more points per 60 minutes from 2014-15 to 2015-16. Last season, however, he jumped up to 3.13 points per 60 minutes, the 23rd-highest mark of any skater to play 1,000 minutes. If any Islander is due to regress, it’s probably Bailey.
ALEXANDER KERFOOT, COLORADO AVALANCHE
Not the most notable name listed here. Not by a long shot. But Kerfoot had himself a tidy rookie campaign. Signed by the Avalanche ahead of the season, he came into the lineup right out of the college game and nearly hit the 20-goal plateau right away. He finished the campaign with 19 goals and 43 points in 79 games, all the while skating fourth-line minutes on a surprising Colorado club that earned a playoff berth. Unfortunately, Kerfoot is due some growing pains. Matter of fact, he may have already experienced a taste of what’s to come.
During his first 40 games last season, Kerfoot registered 11 goals and 30 points and sat sixth in the rookie scoring race. Over the final 39 games, however, his offense fell off a cliff. He scored eight goals and 13 points and fell five spots in freshman scoring to finish with the 11th-best total among rookies. Add to it that Kerfoot shot a bonkers 23.5 percent last season and it might be safe to project a 15-goal, 30-point ceiling for the 23-year-old next season.
ERIK HAULA, VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
It’s usually Haula’s teammate, Karlsson, who finds himself the target of this kind of coming-down-to-earth chatter. The thing is, we expected it all season out of Karlsson only for him to keep bucking the numbers and lighting the lamp. Offensively, all indications are the Golden Knights’ top-line center is here to stay. It’s hard to say the same can be expected of Haula, however.
Here’s the evidence: during the regular season, Haula, 27, scored at nearly double his career goals and points per game rate, did so with a shooting percentage nearly four percent better than his career average and improved his points per 60 rate by nearly a full point when compared to his career average. There’s also the fact his goals per game rate dipped from .38 to .15 come the past post-season. But what stands to hurt Haula’s attempt at a repeat 29-goal, 55-point performance as much as anything is his spot in the lineup. The acquisition of Paul Stastny will likely bump Haula down from the second to the third line. Ice time was what helped Haula stand out last season. Once it disappears, it stands to reason that so, too, will some of his scoring.
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