Rafael Nadal Leading ATP Race To London In More Ways Than One | ATP World Tour

Take a 50-50 battle, shift it ever so slightly to a 53.5 per cent advantage, and you are perfectly positioned to be competing in the Nitto ATP Finals at The O2 in London this November.

The eight best performers from the 2018 season will play in the prestigious season finale from 11-18 November, and the field has become more settled with around 60 per cent of the season now completed.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current eight players who lead the ATP Race To London after Wimbledon shows that their competitive advantage with points won so far in 2018 is a much smaller margin than you might think.

Top Eight In ATP Race To London: Percentage Points Won, Serving, Returning & Total

What’s interesting is when you compare each player in the serve and return categories to the top eight average, no player is above the average in both of them.

Average Percentage Points Won Serving = 68.7%

Players above the average:

Roger Federer = 74.4%

Kevin Anderson = 71.0%

Marin Cilic = 70.2%

Average Percentage Points Won Returning = 39.4%

Players above the average:

Rafael Nadal = 45.3%

Novak Djokovic = 42.8%

Alexander Zverev = 40.1%

Dominic Thiem = 39.6%

The combined total of percentage of points won from serving and retuning has three very familiar faces above the top eight average.

Average Total Percentage Points Won = 53.5%

Players above that average:

Rafael Nadal = 56.5%

Roger Federer = 55.3%

Novak Djokovic = 54.4%

The only player in the top eight in the ATP Race To London who does not feature above the average in any of the three categories is Juan Martin del Potro. But he is less than one percentage point away in all three.

The ATP Race To London is starting to take shape, but there is still time for other players to make a late season surge. The next four knocking on the door are John Isner, Kei Nishikori, Kyle Edmund and Borna Coric.

All they need do is win about three and a half points out of every hundred more than their opponents and London may well be within reach.