It all comes down to this. The 2018 Tour Championship, the final tournament of the 2018 FedEx Cup Playoffs, tees off on Thursday at East Lake Golf Club. The top 30 players in the FedExCup standings are eligible to play and each mathematically still has a shot at taking home the season-long crown. Justin Rose and Dustin Johnson enter as the Vegas favorites at 8-1 Tour Championship odds. Also in the mix is Tiger Woods, who opened at 14-1, but is now listed at 12-1, the fifth-best odds of anyone in the field. Before you make any 2018 Tour Championship picks or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, you’ll want to see what the team at SportsLine has to say.
SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been dead-on so far in the 2018 FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was all over Bryson DeChambeau at the Dell Technologies Championship, projecting him as a top contender from the start despite being a 33-1 long shot.
It has also nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods‘ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. Anyone who has followed their model is up big.
Now that the 2018 Tour Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.
One huge surprise the model is calling for in its 2018 Tour Championship picks: Woods, the only player to win the FedEx Cup more than once, makes a strong run but falls just short of winning the title.
Woods is still searching for that elusive 80th PGA Tour victory and his last win in the FedExCup Playoffs was at the 2009 BMW Championship. However, Woods enters the 2018 Tour Championship full of confidence. In 17 starts this season, he has two second-place finishes and six top-10s. However, he has struggled to close out tournaments, evidenced by his 28.87 putts in the final round (84th on Tour) and his 35.31 average back-nine score (75th).
Another surprise: Brooks Koepka, a three-time major champion, stumbles this week and finishes well outside the top 5.
Koepka has proven he can play extremely well on the biggest stages in golf. He won two majors this season and also joined Ben Hogan and Curtis Strange as the only golfers to win back-to-back U.S. Opens since World War II.
However, Koepka enters the 2018 Tour Championship having failed to crack the top 10 in his last two FedEx Cup Playoff starts. He also ranks 146th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage (57.46), which could lead to extremely difficult shots at East Lake Golf Club. He’s not a strong pick to win it all, the model says, and there are far better values in this loaded field than the 12-1 premium he’s commanding.
Also, the model says three golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer will make a deep run at the Tour Championship title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.
So who wins the 2018 Tour Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated 2018 Tour Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the Tour Championship projected leaderboard from the model that’s nailed four of the last eight majors heading into the weekend.
Justin Rose 8-1
Dustin Johnson 8-1
Rory McIlroy 9-1
Justin Thomas 10-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Tiger Woods 12-1
Rickie Fowler 14-1
Tony Finau 16-1
Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
Hideki Matsuyama 20-1
Jason Day 20-1
Jon Rahm 20-1
Francesco Molinari 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 20-1
Webb Simpson 25-1
Billy Horschel 25-1
Xander Schauffele 30-1
Patrick Cantlay 30-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Paul Casey 40-1
Marc Leishman 40-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
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