The Patriots have been here before. They’ve had other Septembers that made people believe the season was on life support, that the dynasty was finally crumbling.
How bad is it this time? Is this just another one of those blips like last year’s, or is it something that’s beyond fixing? Let’s define the crisis, if you will.
More important, can the Patriots get past it?
Why are they 1-2? It starts with personnel. They’re lacking on both sides of the ball. The defense can’t stop the run or the pass, which is how it was last year, and the offense can’t effectively run or pass.
The latter issue is new to the equation. Behind Tom Brady, they’ve always been a prolific group, scoring 25-30 points/game to cover for the defense. This year, after three games, the unit is averaging 19. If the offense can’t get back to producing points with the top teams in the league, the Patriots will have a tough time turning it around.
The combination of Julian Edelman’s suspension, a lack of depth at wide receiver and an ineffective running game (partly due to injuries) has hampered Brady. Without a running game, he’s been unable to set up play-action — always an effective tool in making defenses bite and allowing receivers to get open. With his receivers unable to create separation, Rob Gronkowski has been double-covered, essentially stifling the offense.
Maybe you can point a finger at offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and his game plan last week in Detroit going too heavy with running back Sony Michel over James White. But right now, the collective arsenal around Brady just isn’t getting the job done.
“This is not a game of X’s and O’s, it’s a game of Jimmys and Joes. And ultimately, I don’t care how good a coach you are, how many Super Bowl rings you have. At some point, you have to have the Jimmys and Joes,” said former NFL coach and NFL Network analyst Brian Billick, when reached last week. “That’s what we’ll find out about the Patriots. Do they have the personnel to get done what they need to get done? Given their history, you have to believe they will. It’s hard to imagine they won’t get it sorted out, but we’re going to find out this week.”
Perhaps Josh Gordon will play against the Dolphins, or in the near future. He will provide a perimeter presence opposing teams will have to respect. It might not be so automatic for teams to double Gronk with Gordon out there. The matchups will also be more favorable for Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett when Gordon is drawing the top corner from the opposing team.
“Talent matters. He’s a pretty good Jimmy and Joe. He’s a pretty good athlete,” said Billick. “Like we saw last week, you can double Gronk. Do they have anyone (else) who can make you pay? In yesteryears, (Danny) Amendola and (Julian) Edelman, they made you pay. The group last week, Hogan and that group, couldn’t. Certainly, a player like Josh Gordon, if you’re putting all your assets into stopping Gronkowski, is a guy that can make you pay. Now how quickly can they integrate him in? That’s the question, because he’s a talented player, make no mistake.”
Edelman can’t return until after Miami game on Monday, when the Pats begin to prepare and practice for Thursday’s game against the Colts. Gordon and Edelman should provide a boost for the offense and get it back in working order.
“Getting (Edelman) back is huge. You could make a case that the cavalry (is) on the way,” Billick said of the slot receiver and Brady’s favorite go-to guy. “Because as good as Tom Brady is, and Gronkowski is, if you limit yourself too much, even Hall of Fame talent like that is going to struggle at some point. I’m not a believer in a template. Now (Matt) Patricia’s shown a template on how to beat the Patriots. Well, yeah. I didn’t think anyone didn’t know it before if you can eliminate Gronkowski and the other guys can’t make a play, then you’ve got a chance to be pretty good against them.”
The past few games, the Jaguars and Lions were able to eliminate Gronk. Not enough other guys were able to make plays. That dynamic has to change.
As for the defense, it looks slow at every level. On the line, at linebacker, in the secondary. The Pats are getting blown out up front in the trenches. With the exception of Deatrich Wise Jr., they’ve exhibited no life, no energy up front.
“Any time you have Tom Brady, I’m only going to be so concerned,” said Billick, “but giving up the 159 yards rushing, combined with all the big plays to Detroit, a team too up to that point (that) hadn’t exhibited that, that would probably be my biggest concern.”
The Pats rank second-to-last in run defense and third-to-last in third-down defense. Part of it is personnel, part of it is effort up front. Malcom Brown, Danny Shelton and Lawrence Guy are losing the trench war. There’s been little to no pass rush. Granted, Trey Flowers has been hurt, but free-agent acquisition Adrian Clayborn has been a disappointment thus far.
The team hasn’t shown to be tough, nor has it establish its will on either side of the ball.
“When you talk toughness, Coach Belichick preaches running the ball, stopping the run, and covering kicks,” said special teams captain Matthew Slater. “Those are the three things that jump out right away. I certainly think that’s something we’ve prided ourselves on in the past. We need to do a better job. There’s a lot of room for improvement within our group. Playing with a higher sense of urgency, playing more physical, playing better with our hands, hopefully we can continue to improve in that department.”
They’ve had injuries: Rookie Ja’Whaun Bentley, their one speedy linebacker, is on IR, while Dont’a Hightower hasn’t played up to par since — among other injuries — the torn pectoral muscle that ended his 2017.
“If they don’t fix that defense,” Boomer Esiason said on Showtime’s Inside the NFL, “it’s going to be a long year.”
There are no quick fixes. Maybe they can play with a little more urgency and enthusiasm, getting a little more jump off the ball up front. Maybe they can scheme it up a little better. Getting Flowers and Patrick Chung back — they both missed last week with concussions — will help, but the biggest aid for the defense will be once again having a prolific offense. If Brady & Co. start piling up the points, opposing teams will have to abandon the run and become one-dimensional.
The special teams coverage units also have to pick it up. As Slater mentioned, the toughness quotient arrives from kick coverage and they’ve surrendered too much yardage, allowing teams to start with favorable position. So it’s across the board. But that can be corrected.
“I don’t think it’s time to panic,” said Billick. “If they can beat Miami, they’re one game back, and life’s good again.”
MAKING THEM PAY?
Brady hasn’t gotten off to one of his better starts, and not just due to the lack of weapons. He’s missed a few open receivers.
It’s early, but there’s ground for him to make up if he’s going to hit any of the five $1 million triggers in his contract, which all require him to finish top five in a statistic. Where does he stand for those?
Passer rating: 15th (93.9)
Completion pct.: 19th (64.0)
Yards/attempt: 24th (6.44)
Touchdown passes: 12th (6)
Passing yards: 25th (644)
PUMP BAKER’S BRAKES
Baker Mayfield is walking on water these days and Mayfield mania has gripped Ohio. The Browns quarterback, who led a game-winning 75-yard touchdown drive to beat the Jets, gets his first NFL start today against the Raiders.
Offensive coordinator Todd Haley attempted to put on the brakes.
“He did a terrific, terrific job and gave us a chance to win. Now, this is the real test,” he said via Cleveland.com. “I know a lot of people are carving the bust for Canton already, to steal one from my old pal (Pro Football Hall of Famer Bill) Parcells. He set the bar high. I do not know that every week is going to go like that went.”
Mayfield completed 17-of-23 attempts for 201 yards and a 100.1 rating. Haley doesn’t expect Mayfield to complete 74 percent of his passes every week.
“Throwing for 70-plus percent and making big plays, catching a ball for us, I think that was a small sample size,” Haley said. “I’ve been around long enough to understand that there are going to be ups and downs.
“We just have . . . to make sure that he’s doing smart things, not reckless or careless things. He did a couple in the game and got away with them.
“It’s great that he set a high standard. At the same time, I think we’re realistic.”
JETS TALKING THROUGH IT
Speaking of Mayfield, Jets coach Todd Bowles is still dealing with the aftershocks of his own player, Jamal Adams, saying the team wasn’t prepared for the rookie quarterback.
He was asked during one press conference last week if that was a bad look.
“It’s not a bad look. It’s a young player, I know what he meant,” said Bowles. “Our team knows what he meant, and we moved on from there. It’s not a bad look, it’s part of a young player getting older and dealing with the media. He’s going to have some growing pains, but we’ll work through them and he’ll be fine.”
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