Before the fifth Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 5 picks without regard to the spread.)
Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My season record so far is 22-40-1. Not good! I’m still BGN’s leader in straight up picks, though.
NFL Week 5 Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3): Hm, do I go with Pat “The Truth” Mahomes or Blake Bortles? Really tough call here. Not. The Jags defense might be able to slow KC’s offense more than other teams can but it won’t be enough. Besides, the Chiefs have one of the best home fields in the league for a reason. PICK: Chiefs -2.5
Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills: This 3-1 Titans team hasn’t been flat out dominant but they also haven’t looked straight up bad. The Bills, meanwhile, HAVE looked terrible outside of their surprising Week 3 upset effort in Minnesota. Maybe the Bills manage to catch the Titans off guard after Tennessee’s emotional overtime win but I can’t simply count on Josh Allen to come through. PICK: Titans -5.5
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): The Steelers have some real issues both on and off the field. I don’t like the way they’ve been trending. I also think the Falcons aren’t as bad as their 1-3 record indicates. Atlanta is really banged up, which doesn’t help their chances, and it’s hard to imagine the Steelers dropping three games in a row at Heinz Field. But screw it, I’ll take the points. PICK: Falcons +3
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at New York Jets: 21-year-old Sam Darnold is going through some growing pains as the Jets have failed to win since Week 1. Case Keemun is going through some predictable struggles as he’s failed to complete a touchdown pass since Week 1. In the battle of these two strugglers, I’m going to take the home team. Denver is playing on a short week and they’re traveling east. PICK: Jets +1.5
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Detroit Lions: This line hasn’t changed since it opened. I think this will be close. The Lions have shown good fight lately. But I’m not about to bet against Aaron Rodgers in a game that’s essentially a pick’ em. PICK: Packers -1
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns: John Harbaugh’s Ravens rank fifth overall in DVOA through four weeks. Joe Flacco is looking better than he has in what feels like a long time. I like the way the Browns have battled so far but it seems like they find a new way to lose each week. They’re just not there yet. PICK: Ravens -3
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6.5): The Panthers should be well-rested coming off a Week 4 bye. The Giants should be well-ineffective as ever with a washed-up quarterback under center. Also completely unsurprising to see Odell Beckham Jr. talking about this New York team having motivational issues with Pat Shurmur as their leader. PICK: Panthers -6.5
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: This Bengals squad isn’t getting a lot of hype but they’re good. Cincy ranks seventh in DVOA. Miami, meanwhile, got exposed on the road last week. Hard to count on them. PICK: Bengals -6
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5): The Bolts almost found a way to lose to C.J. Beathard last Sunday. Not encouraging. LAC will have to deal with another stadium takeover this weekend as Raider fans show up in droves to root on the Silver and Black. At the very least, I think this will be close. I don’t have a lot of trust in Jon Gruden but is Anthony Lynn really any better? PICK: Raiders +5
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-3): C.J. Beathard played better than expected last week. I’m not just going to count on it happening again. The Cards are very bad but there’s at least a little bit of hope for them now with Josh Rosen under center instead of Sam Bradford. I’ll say the rookie quarterback impresses this week. PICK: Cardinals +3
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Seattle Seahawks: Damn. I know the Rams’ offense is really good and the 2018 Seahawks are far from the 2013 Seahawks but it’s still kinda crazy to see Seattle big home underdogs like this. It’s tempting to take the points but how can I go with Brian Schottenheimer over LA’s offense? PICK: Rams -7.5
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Big game. The battle of two early season disappointments. Both sides have legitimate reasons for concern. One big thing working in the Eagles’ favor is their home field advantage. Philly is 17-2 in their last 19 meaningful games at Lincoln Financial Field, as we know. The Vikings’ passing attack figures to challenge the Eagles’ leaky secondary but Minnesota’s offensive line should struggle to hold up against the pass rush. The Eagles are winning this one. PICK: Eagles -3
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Houston Texans: Interestingly enough, the Texans rank 13th in DVOA despite being 1-3 and their one win coming by three points in overtime. Maybe Houston is due for some progression to the mean. I was originally going to take Dallas but I’m going to go with the analytics here. Don’t let me down, nerds. PICK: Texans +3
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6): I’d stay away from this game because this Washington team seems kind of unpredictable. I could just as easily see them getting beat comfortably by the Saints as I could see them getting an upset coming off their bye. I’ll tentatively lean with the home side here because I think they’re hitting their stride after some early season hiccups. PICK: Saints -6
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