Ole Miss wide receiver D.K. Metcalf was destined to declare for the NFL Draft.
That is, until he was lost for the season to a neck injury early in the Rebels’ come-from-behind win at Arkansas.
Metcalf carried a consensus early-round grade before he was sent to the shelf. His injury, which head coach Matt Luke described as one of the vertebrae, will require surgery and a rehab process that could take anywhere from 3-6 months. The NFL Draft is scheduled to open April 25.
“I think D.K. was somewhere Top 50,” Dane Brugler, the lead NFL Draft analyst for The Athletic, said. “And not only me, but talking to scouts, they view D.K. as a Top 50 prospect. Could have gotten to the first round? Absolutely. That was in the mix. He’s the guy you want coming off the bus, first and foremost, with the freakish build that he has. He’s a workout warrior. You see the speed on the field. A freaky talent like that, those guys don’t last very long in the NFL Draft. Not only the measurables when you talk about the workout numbers, but he produced quality film, especially with his ability to get vertical. We see that often in the Ole Miss offense, obviously, but very strong at the catch point. There’s a lot to like about D.K. Metcalf.
“But the injury kind of changes things a little bit. I think most still expect him to declare for the draft. That would make sense. But how will the injury affect his NFL decision, but also moving forward, is there anything long-term that teams have to worry about? Will he be able to give full workouts before the draft? There’s a lot of unknown at this point. The NFL Draft, the NFL Combine, the most important aspect of the combine is the medicals. That’s where it’ll be huge for D.K. Metcalf just for the doctors to look at him, see what’s going on with the neck, make sure that he’s on pace to make a full recovery and then, long-term, there aren’t any worries. This is a draft class where there’s not that one true top wide receiver this year. A.J. Brown, he’s up there. Riley Ridley from Georgia’s up there. There’s about five or six receivers that are in that late-first, early-second-round discussion. They’re all jockeying for position. Unfortunately, this injury is going to hurt D.K.’s chance of being the first receiver off the board. But as long as the medicals turn out OK, he’ll still be an early-round draft pick most likely. As long as he’s healthy and on the field, he’s going to be able to help an offense.”
A handful of recent mock drafts had Metcalf slotted as the first wide receiver taken, usually between 10-20. Metcalf finished his redshirt sophomore, and possibly final, Ole Miss season second on the team in receiving yards (569) and first in touchdowns (5). He averaged 81.3 yards per game.
The 6-foot-4, 230-pound Metcalf was a preseason All-SEC second team selection, as well as a Biletnikoff Award Watch List member. Metcalf played and started in all 12 games last season, catching 39 passes for 646 yards and seven touchdowns — all career highs. He was awarded a medical redshirt for his 2016 freshman season, when the former consensus four-star prospect scored touchdowns in each of his first two college games but broke his foot against Wofford and missed the last 10 games of the year.
“First off, it’s just the freakish qualities,” Brugler said. “He’s got a huge catch radius. No offense to Jordan Ta’amu, but some of his throws not being on point, it doesn’t matter. With a D.K. Metcalf, he’s going to bail you out. Love his release. We saw it in the Alabama game, the first play — that quick swipe, that out-in move, release, get up the field. And he can separate late. He’s got those long, powerful strides where can get vertical, beat the corner. He doesn’t have the long speed that you want; he’ll kind of get you with the second and third steps. But it’s those later steps where corners will be able to catch up. But nonetheless, he’s going to be able to get on top of you as a corner. Very physical. I think the biggest worries I had with him is he doesn’t always play up to his size as a ball-carrier. I want to see him break more tackles, more yards after the catch, be it simple screens or slants. Shrug off some of those safety hits and keep on going. He’s so muscle-bound and huge, some of the flexibility, there’s some questions there. He needed to be a little bit better finisher. You saw some drops on some of his tape. There’s some question there, but you’re nit-picking at this point. The comparison to Courland Sutton, that makes some sense. Courtland Sutton’s, I think, a little freakier with some of the twitchy movements, but D.K. Metcalf, there’s a lot to like in terms of the foundation traits for what you want at receiver.”
Metcalf, per sources, has long had his eye on early-entry into the NFL Draft as soon as he was eligible. The picture, now, is a bit blurry. So much so to at least bring a return to school into the discussion.
However, Brugler believes Metcalf, even with the injury, will strike while the iron is hot.
“As long as he is on pace to work out at some point before the draft, I think he’ll be just fine,” he said. “He won’t be the first player to not work out at the combine only to work out at the pro day and still go high.
“Just two years ago, Corey Davis, coming out of a MAC school, really wasn’t able to work out at all before the draft because he was dealing with injury. He went fifth overall. For D.K., if he’s not on pace to be fully healthy by the combine, that’s fine; it shouldn’t really factor into his decision. As long as he’s on pace to work out before the draft, I think that’s really paramount. Now, if the injury is something that could have some long-term effects, that’s where it gets a little tricky. On one hand, he could return to school and show that the injury is not an issue for him. On the other hand, he could come back and get injured further. At that point, the NFL is a long shot. I think it makes sense to strike while the iron’s hot, even with the injury. Hope for the best during the rehab and hopefully he can get on the field at Ole Miss’ pro day. If not, then have private workouts in April ready for the draft. I think there’s enough tape on D.K. Metcalf where it’s not as imperative to return to school and make sure you have another season under your belt.”
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