This Friday at 5 p.m. ET is the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers for impending free agents. For some, it’s a right-place, right-time kind of thing. Sign on the dotted line, and your 2018 salary is set at $17.9 million.
Rather than dip their toe into free agency’s choppy waters, the player can kick the can down the road and hope for (a) a better year, (b) better health, (c) better luck or (d) all of the above.
This Friday at 5 p.m. ET is the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers for impending free agents. For some, it’s a right-place, right-time kind of thing. Sign on the dotted line, and your 2018 salary is set at $17.9 million.
Rather than dip their toe into free agency’s choppy waters, the player can kick the can down the road and hope for (a) a better year, (b) better health, (c) better luck or (d) all of the above.
That $17.9 million salary has gotten so large that teams are increasingly cautious about extending a qualifying offer to all but a handful of players. Last season, nine players got qualifying offers, and all were rejected. (Reminder: Players who were traded during the season cannot receive a qualifying offer, and players who have previously gotten one cannot get it again.)
This offseason, we know that Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and one or two more will get offers. None of them will accept, joining the 92.5 percent of players who’ve passed on qualifying offers the last six seasons.
Plenty of others might just jump at one. Let’s consider five:
1. Charlie Morton, RHP: He’ll turn 35 in a couple of weeks and is coming off his best season (30 starts, 3.13 ERA, 10.8 K/9). But he dealt with a cranky shoulder in the final month of the season, and seems to have at least toyed with the idea of retirement. If he does pitch again, he has said he’ll remain with the Astros.
Video: Charlie Morton enters 2019 free agency
2. A.J. Pollock, CF: He has averaged 79 games for the Diamondbacks the last three seasons, which could impact his appeal in free agency. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best outfielders in the game, but he has played 150 games just once in his career. At 30, Pollock could accept a qualifying offer and try again in a year, when he might have more leverage for a long-term deal.
Video: A.J. Pollock is hitting the free-agent market
3. Andrew Miller, LHP: He was on the disabled list three times this season and had his toughest season since moving to the bullpen in 2012. He could almost double his 2018 salary with a qualifying offer. The Indians are unlikely to offer it, and that’s partially because they know Miller might take it.
Video: Andrew Miller set to enter free agency in 2019
4. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP: The Dodgers would be happy to pay him $17.9 million if they were confident he could repeat his 2018 numbers (1.88 ERA, nine starts in August and September). Problem is, Ryu missed virtually all of the 2015-2016 seasons with a bad shoulder, and at 31, the qualifying might be too much of a gamble for the Dodgers.
Video: Hyun-Jin Ryu hits the free agent market
5. Jed Lowrie, INF: He’s coming off a second straight strong year (4.9 fWAR) and made $6 million in 2018. He’s also 34, and while he could probably get more total money on a two-year deal, a qualifying offer makes sense for Lowrie and possibly even the A’s.
Video: Jed Lowrie enters free agency after career year
Richard Justice has been a reporter for MLB.com since 2011. Read his columns, listen to his podcast and follow him on Twitter at @RichardJustice.
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