TEMPE, Ariz. — It’s on.
The race for the No. 1 pick, that is.
When the Arizona Cardinals lost to the formerly 1-8 Oakland Raiders on Sunday, they moved themselves into a three-way tie for the worst record at 2-8.
With six weeks left in the season, the Cardinals have set themselves up to make a run at the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft. While a lot can happen between now and Dec. 30, when the Cardinals conclude their season in Seattle, the likelihood of them securing one of the top picks in the draft is all but a done deal.
Here’s how the Cardinals’ situation looks after the Raiders loss:
Draft position
The Cardinals currently have the third pick in the draft through week 11, behind the San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 and the Raiders at No. 2.
Since all three teams sit at 2-8, the order was determined by a tiebreaker (see below).
But according to the ESPN NFL Football Power Index, the Cardinals likely won’t sit at No. 3 for long.
The FPI gives Arizona a 45 percent chance to secure the top pick, a 96.8 percent chance to get a top-five pick and a 99.9 percent chance to draft in the top 10.
Arizona’s odds to get the first pick, as assigned by the FPI, are significantly higher at the moment than the next-highest projection. The Raiders are projected to have the No. 2 pick by the FPI, which is giving Oakland a 23.4 percent chance of getting the first pick. The 49ers, which the FPI projects to have the third pick, have a 20.4 percent chance to get the top pick.
With all three teams having six games left, the rest of their schedules will determine who will pick first, second or third.
Remaining schedule
One of the main reasons why the FPI projects the Cardinals to have the first overall pick is because of their remaining schedule. Arizona has the hardest strength of schedule for their remaining six games, according to the FPI.
The Cardinals’ final six games are against the Chargers, Packers, Lions, Falcons, Rams and Seahawks. As of now, only the Chargers and Rams are expected to be playoff teams, but the combined record of all six teams is 34-26-1. Four of Arizona’s final six games are on the road. The Cardinals play only the Lions and Rams at home.
By comparison, the Raiders have the second-hardest remaining strength of the schedule and the Niners have the fourth.
Arizona has the highest chance of losing its final six games to finish 2-14 at 32.6 percent, according to the FPI.
How the draft tiebreaker works
Should the Cardinals, Niners and Raiders continue to win and/or lose at the same rate and all finish with the same record, the NFL will use a tiebreaker to determine the draft order.
The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule. Whoever has the weaker strength of schedule gets the higher pick.
Through 11 weeks, the Niners have the lowest strength of schedule in the NFL at .480. The Raiders are second at .495 and the Cardinals are third at .515.
If teams have the same strength of schedule, then divisional or conference tiebreakers, if applicable, will be used. And if, somehow, the teams are still tied, then a coin flip will determine the draft order.
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