After consulting with Santa, it appears that every one of you made the nice list this year, so you’re getting my Week 16 picks as a present, well, except for Bears fans. You guys don’t really need a present and that’s because you got one on Sunday in the form of an NFC North title.
As everyone knows, a division title isn’t actually official until Mr. T sends you a congratulatory tweet and luckily for the Bears, that tweet came in around 11:22 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
That tweet is basically Mr. T’s cordial way of saying, “I pity the fools who didn’t win the division this year.” If someone puts that slogan on a shirt, they’ll make millions, and if the Bears do it, they might make billions.
The only person more excited than Mr. T about the Bears’ division title was our very own Sean Wagner-McGough, who let out all his long-suffering, Bears fan emotions during the latest edition of the Pick Six podcast (You can click here and subscribe to the Pick Six Podcast).
Each week, I team up with Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and Wagner-McGough for an NFL recap show that you can download every Monday morning during the season. If you decide to listen this week, not only will you get Wagner-McGough talking non-stop about the Bears, but you’ll also get to hear my speech dedicated to Hue Jackson, and who doesn’t want to hear a speech about Hue Jackson.
If you’re not really a podcast person and you only like picks, you can check out the picks from all of our other CBS Sports NFL writers by clicking here.
Alright, I still have some Christmas shopping to do, so I’m going to stop delaying and get to these picks.
Stream Thursday’s game, Saturday’s games and all of Sunday’s games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream the CBS games on CBS All Access.
NFL Week 16 Picks: Holiday edition
Baltimore (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (11-3)
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Someone in the NFL scheduling office must really hate the Ravens, because that’s the only way to explain how this game got scheduled the way it did. Not only do the Ravens have to travel across the country for a Saturday game, but they’re also playing a Chargers team that will have had three extra days of rest after playing on Thursday in Week 15. Normally, I’d say that three extra days of rest isn’t a big deal, but then I read the tweet below and now i’m not even sure the Chargers would have been able to field a team without that extra rest.
Of course, the biggest disadvantage here isn’t even the extra rest, it’s the fact that the Ravens have to fly across the country five days before Christmas. I mean, have you ever been to an airport around the holidays? It’s like Lord of the Flies meets “Jingle All the Way” meets “Snakes on a Plane.” Now, I know all of the Ravens travel is chartered, but let’s be honest, anyone who spends more than five minutes at an airport around Christmas time is at an automatic psychological disadvantage for at least three weeks while they mentally recover from what they just experienced.
The other bad news for the Ravens is that they’re actually facing a good team this week. After beating the Bengals, Raiders, Falcons and Buccaneers over the past five weeks, Lamar Jackson is finally going to go up against a tough defense, and I have two concerns with him in this game.
For one, Jackson is a fumbling machine and I don’t see that changing unless the Ravens decided to put Super Glue on his hands. Jackson has fumbled in every game he’s started and has a total of nine on the season, which is the third most in the NFL for quarterbacks. The only players ahead of him on the list are Dak Prescott (12) and Russell Wilson (10), but they’ve played 14 games compared to just five for Jackson. The thing is, you can afford to fumble against bad teams, but that kind of thing will come back and haunt you like the Ghost of Christmas Past if you do it against a good team. I’m also a little worried about all the hits that Jackson’s been taking. The one thing I’m not worried about in this game is the Chargers losing.
The pick: Chargers 27-17 over Ravens
Houston (10-4) at Philadelphia (7-7)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
After watching Philadelphia beat the Rams on Sunday, I’m pretty sure we’ve now officially reached the portion of the Eagles‘ schedule where they somehow run the table and win the Super Bowl. After Carson Wentz went down with an injury last season, I gave the Eagles a zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl and I was about to do the same thing this season until I watched Nick Foles beat the Rams, and now, I’m never going to doubt the Eagles again. It’s almost like Doug Pederson planned this whole thing.
I mean, this season is playing out eerily like last year:
Carson Wentz gets injured? Check.
Nick Foles leads Philly to a huge one-score road win in his first start? Check.
Everyone is wearing dog masks? Check (Kind of). That says “kind of” because It seems the Eagles have decided to wear SKI MASKS instead of dog masks, which is arguably more intimidating.
It you’re wondering why the team decided to wear the ski masks, I’ll let cornerback De’Vante Bausby explain.
“It’s robbing season. We’re here to take it,” he told the Athletic.
If I’m reading that right, I think that means the Eagles will be going home with the Lombardi Trophy whether they win it or not. Um, Houston, we have a problem, and the problem is that your opponent this week is a team full of maniacs who are clearly going to stop at nothing until they earn a playoff berth. If I’ve learned one thing over the past year, it’s that if the Eagles are wearing any type of mask on their head, I’m not picking against them. I’m also not going to pick against anyone named Nick in December, because as everyone in Philly already knows, St. Nick always delivers.
The pick: Eagles 22-19 over Texans
Pittsburgh (8-5-1) at New Orleans (12-2)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I have no idea why, but the Steelers kicking situation has somehow turned into my favorite ongoing drama in the NFL. Chris Boswell has been so bad this year that it’s basically a Christmas miracle anytime he actually hits a ball through the uprights. The bad news for Boswell is that the Saints are probably the last team he wants to see right now and that’s because AFC North kickers have struggled against New Orleans this year.
Remember when the Saints beat the Browns 21-18 back in Week 2? The Browns missed two field goals AND two extra points in that game.
Remember when the Saints beat the Ravens 24-23 back in Week 7? That was the game where Justin Tucker somehow missed an extra point even though he never misses anything. If Boswell is going to lose his job this year, there’s a basically a 90 percent chance that it’s going to happen after this game. Of course, Boswell isn’t the only person in Pittsburgh I’m worried about. If this game comes down to Mike Tomlin throwing a challenge flag, there’s a 100 percent chance the Steelers are going to lose.
I mean, the real Christmas miracle on Sunday would be if Tomlin actually wins a challenge in this game.
That’s so bad, it’s almost impressive.
In what might go down as my craziest prediction of the year, I say that Boswell makes all his field goals, Tomlin wins at least one challenge AND the Steelers win in New Orleans. And yes, I’m already regretting two of those three predictions.
The pick: Steelers 34-31 over Saints
Kansas City (11-3) at Seattle (8-6)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
It took 15 weeks, but my streak is finally over: I missed a pick in a game involving the Seahawks. After running my record to 13-0 on the season, the 49ers blew everything up and ruined my perfect streak over the weekend. However, instead of being sad, I got over it by downing generous amounts of my new favorite Christmas drink: Egg nog and tequila. To be honest, I don’t really like either of those things individually, and they’re actually even worse when you mix them together, but the good news is that the flavor was so bad that it made me forget about the fact that my Seahawks streak ended.
As for this game, if there’s one team in the NFL that’s perfectly built to beat the Chiefs, it’s the Seahawks. Seattle currently has the top rushing offense in the NFL and the Chiefs aren’t exactly built to stop them. The Seahawks might end up rushing for more than 200 yards, which would actually be a good thing, because if they keep running the ball, then Patrick Mahomes won’t be on the field. In a perfect world, the Seahawks would get the ball in the first quarter and then immediately run out the clock on the entire half by calling 30 straight run plays. It would be the first 30-minute drive in NFL history. The Seahawks would then do the exact same thing in the second half and win the game 14-7.
Even if the Seahawks can’t keep Mahomes off the field, he still might struggle and that’s because AFC teams almost always struggle in Seattle. What Kevin McCalister did to the Wet Bandits in “Home Alone” is basically what the Seahawks do to AFC teams when they visit Seattle. Russell Wilson drops an iron on their face. Since Wilson’s rookie year in 2012, AFC teams are just 1-12 when playing at CenturyLink Field. As if that’s not enough, the Seahawks are 16-2 in prime-time home games under Pete Carroll and when you put those two things together, you get me picking the Seahawks.
The pick: Seahawks 30-27 over Chiefs
NFL Week 16 picks: All the rest
Browns 27-24 over Bengals
Cowboys 31-20 over Buccaneers
Panthers 22-16 over Falcons
Bears 30-20 over 49ers
Rams 27-16 over Cardinals
Raiders 20-17 over Broncos
Last week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted the Broncos would score 16 points and lose to the Browns, and then the Broncos went out and scored 16 points and lost to the Browns. Now, did I know that Vance Joseph was going to make the most inexplicable fourth down decision of the entire NFL season? Of course, I did. And just to rehash things in case you missed it: Joseph made the decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Browns 6-yard line with Denver trailing by four points and roughly 5:30 left to play in the game.
It’s not every day that an NFL coach makes such a horrible decision that it causes people to revise their Christmas list, but that’s what happened here. Instead of asking for presents this year, most people in Denver just want Joseph fired now.
Now, I’m not sure Santa has that kind of power, but if Joseph gets fired, people in Denver know who to thank.
Worst pick: I picked the Seahawks to beat the 49ers last week and I’m probably going to remember that pick for the rest of time because it officially ended my perfect 13-0 record picking Seahawks games this season. If I had gone 16-0, my plan was to move to Seattle and name all my future kids after seasonal drinks on the Starbucks menu — “Hey everyone, meet my daughter, Peppermint Mocha Breech” — but none of that is going to happen now after the 49ers pulled off the improbable win. Although I’m pretty upset that my future children won’t be named after Starbucks drinks, I have to remind myself that things could be worse: I could have lost $500,000 betting on the game.
I’m not completely sure what the moral of the story is here, but I think it’s that you should never take $500,000 to Vegas. Also, don’t name your kids after Starbucks drinks.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, this is the part where I tell you. Through 14 weeks, my five best teams are: The Seahawks (13-1), Rams (11-3), Chargers (11-3), Chiefs (11-3) and Browns (10-3-1).
As for the rest of the NFL, I’m somewhere between 6-8 and 10-4 picking the 27 teams not listed above.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 15: 12-4
SU overall: 144-78-2
Against the spread in Week 15: 6-9-1
ATS overall: 104-114-6
Exact score predictions: 2
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably trying to think of new names for his future kids since they’re no longer going to be named after Starbucks drinks.
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