LAS VEGAS — At some point, Pete Carroll will be forced to answer a tough question. But the Seahawks coach sits in an enviable position with his team guaranteed a playoff spot, so it’s a question he wants.
Will he rest some starters in Week 17? Bookmakers and bettors are waiting for the answer.
The final week of the NFL regular season is a puzzle unlike any other. As the league strategically planned kickoff times for Sunday’s flexible schedule, oddsmakers started the complex process of posting opening lines.
“I hate it,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said of booking Week 17. “You are shooting in the dark.”
On some games, oddsmakers will shoot and miss, and that’s why there are bettors who love this unusual week. Of course, bettors can shoot and miss, too. As of Monday afternoon, the South Point and William Hill books had posted lines on only 10 of the 16 games.
“There are a lot of variables in play, much more than any other week of the season,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “It’s the week when you need to be the most cautious.”
It’s bad for business to have games off the board. Bookmakers need action. But it’s worse for business to post weak numbers that give advantages to bettors, so Andrews said he takes a “more conservative” approach to booking this week. That approach includes lower wagering limits on select games.
The Cardinals-Seahawks game was off the board. Seattle will be either the No. 5 or 6 seed in the NFC playoffs, so Carroll has risk-reward issues to consider. He has banged-up offensive linemen who could use a week off — and the same goes for wide receiver Doug Baldwin and running back Chris Carson — but playing too many backup linemen could put quarterback Russell Wilson at risk. So Carroll might opt to rest Wilson.
However, if the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals and the Vikings beat the Bears, Seattle would drop to the six seed and likely play a wild-card game at Chicago. Carroll probably would prefer the five seed and a wild-card game at the Cowboys.
The Vikings are a 5-point favorite over Chicago, and that line is posted because the Bears still have a shot at the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye so coach Matt Nagy seems likely to play most of his starters.
The Rams, currently holding the NFC’s No. 2 spot, opened as 9-point home favorites over the 49ers. Los Angeles coach Sean McVay announced he plans to play his starters, including running back Todd Gurley, if healthy. Gurley sat out Week 16 with a knee injury.
A year ago at this time, McVay threw a curveball and it serves as a cautionary tale for bookmakers. With the Rams locked into the No. 3 seed and a home game, McVay decided to sit Gurley, quarterback Jared Goff and several other key starters last season. But Las Vegas books already had opened the Rams as 6½-point home favorites over the 49ers. The line flipped to 49ers -3 by Wednesday of Week 17 and closed 49ers -6½. San Francisco’s 34-13 win was a lopsided loser for the books.
“It seems like a lot of times the [bettors] get the information before we do,” Andrews said.
A tricky angle to Week 17 is handicapping the teams that desperately need to win and the teams playing with little or no incentive to win. Those factors are figured into the line, but bettors often think they are getting the best of it by playing motivated favorites. Philadelphia fits that angle this week. The Eagles, in the playoff hunt, are 6½-point favorites at Washington. The Redskins’ only motivation is to play the spoiler role against a rival.
A year ago, Baltimore was a motivated favorite in the playoff hunt. The Ravens, laying 8 points, were upset by Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
The Ravens are in a similar situation again this week. With the AFC North title on the line, Baltimore is a 5½-point home favorite over the Browns. At the same time, the must-win Steelers are 14-point home favorites over the Bengals.
“The must-win games are not must wagers,” The Gold Sheet editor Bruce Marshall said. “Sometimes the line is over-adjusted on the team that needs to win. The Giants were a great example Sunday. The Giants came out loose and played well. The Colts had everything to play for and almost lost the game.”
Eli Manning was sharper than usual for the Giants, who were 9½-point underdogs in a 28-27 loss at Indianapolis, which had all of the motivation on its side in Week 16.
The Colts remain in the AFC playoff picture and face an all-or-nothing trip to Tennessee on Sunday night. The game is off the board only because of the questionable status of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota. If Mariota starts, the line is expected to be pick’em. If Mariota sits out, the Colts figure to be 3-point favorites. The Colts, 8-1 in their past nine games, are a popular team with the public and Andrew Luck has a 10-0 career record against the Titans.
The Carolina-New Orleans game is off the board. With the Saints locked into the NFC’s top seed, will coach Sean Payton rest starters?
How will Jason Garrett play his hand this week? The NFC East champion Cowboys, set to play at home on wild-card weekend, opened as 5-point underdogs to the Giants. But with Garrett’s plans unknown and with Giants wideout Odell Beckham Jr. questionable to play, the number was not posted Monday.
“I don’t think the Cowboys’ starters will play more than a series or two,” Murray said. “Certainly, the Giants are still all-in to win and that’s why you will see such a high number.”
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