A Key to a Brewers NL Central Repeat

There wasn’t a hotter team in baseball than the Milwaukee Brewers last September, and that incredible run carried them within one game of their first World Series appearance since 1982.

Last year, they won the NL Central for the first time since 2011 and are well-positioned to do it again in 2019. Back-to-back division titles are not necessarily going to be easy with the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central with them, but one of the keys for the Brewers might be in the return of starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson.

Nelson will turn 30 in June and is still in Milwaukee on a one-year, $3.7 million deal. Before a shoulder injury in September 2017 ended his season early and took him out for all of last year, Nelson was emerging as a key piece of the Brewers’ rotation. In 175.1 innings, he pitched to a 3.05 ERA and a 27 percent strikeout rate.

A year ago, the Brewers made perhaps the biggest offseason splash by trading for eventual NL MVP Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain, and in the months after, they drew some criticism for not making a serious push for a top of the rotation starter. Both in free agency and the trade market, their perceived lack of interest in bolstering their rotation was cause for ire. Fans and analysts both looked at the Brewers’ pitching staff and saw the need to add to the rotation.

Manager Craig Counsell worked around this hole in the roster effectively enough to run past the Cubs to take the division title in Game 163 and then go all the way to the final game of the NLCS against the Dodgers.

And if Nelson can return to at least nearly the form he showed in 2017, the Brewers seem like the obvious pick to win the division crown again.

Two seasons ago, Nelson rocked a mid-90s fastball to go with a filthy power slider. Opposing hitters whiffed on Nelson’s slider 18 percent of the time in 2017, and to make matters worse, he complimented that pitch with an oft-used curveball that yielded just a .190 batting average against.

If, if Nelson can return to the Brewers rotation in 2019 and pitch close to what he did in 2017, that’s a major addition to the Milwaukee roster that will have cost them minimally. Whether he can perform at that level again is a worthy question because of the nature of his injury, however. Torn labrum and rotator cuff injuries have spelled the end for many pitchers before.

There will be somewhat less pressure on Nelson thanks to the emergence of Jhoulys Chacin, who threw almost 200 innings for the Brewers last year and arguably led the staff as their number one starter. Chacin was a major part of Milwaukee’s success against the Rockies in the NLDS, and though he took the loss in game seven of the NLCS against Los Angeles, Chacin pitched well in that series.

Additionally, the Milwaukee offense is much more formidable than it was in 2017, thanks to Yelich and Cain. So rather than pursuing a new starter in the free agent or trade market, the decision to use their resources on offense may end up looking like a sage one thanks to Nelson.

With pitchers and catchers reporting just over a month from now, Nelson’s status will remain in question for some time. Despite making it through a grueling rehab process in 2018, he may not be able to return to the mound in time for the start of the 2019 season. He will be throwing prior to the start of spring training, but only live game action in Arizona in March will tell if he’s ready to start the season on the active roster.

Whenever he does return, the Brewers stand to benefit mightily from Nelson’s comeback. It might even get them a consecutive NL Central crown.