The second week of January has arrived. Pitchers and catchers report in a little more than a month. Not every pitcher knows where he’ll report to spring training, though, and the same thing goes for a handful of teamless catchers, too.
It’s rough, adjusting to the reality that baseball’s Hot Stove season never really gets, well, hot. But let’s not change the name quite yet, and not only because Tepid Time doesn’t have much of a ring.
MORE: MLB free-agent tracker: Tracking, analyzing the signings
Instead of killing time until mid-February, there’s still plenty of intrigue out there. With that in mind, let’s look at the seven most important decisions yet to be made this offseason.
1. Where does Bryce Harper sign?
Thoughts: Harper was never going to sign quickly this offseason. Even before this new, drawn-out approach started to dominate baseball’s offseason landscape, Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, were going to take their time. Harper’s impending free agency had loomed over the Nationals for years, and all of baseball is, if nothing else, incredibly curious as to how the market reacts to a star player hitting the open market at 26 years old. Harper is not coming off his best season —that was 2015, when he won the NL MVP award — but he is coming off a season with 34 homers, a .393 on-base percentage and 133 OPS+, and he did play a career-high 159 games. That’s not too shabby. Does he move out west (he’s from Las Vegas) and sign with the Dodgers? Does he believe in the White Sox rebuilding movement and take the Southside money? Does he convince the Cubs to figure out a way to make the financials work? We’re waiting, Bryce …
2. And how about Manny Machado?
Thoughts: If Harper is Prize 1 this offseason, Machado is Prize 1a. The 26-year-old is coming off a season in which he set or tied career highs in OPS+ (146), RBIs (107), homers (37, tied) and several other categories, traditional and analytical. Like Harper, he’d be an instant lineup upgrade for pretty much any team. Like Harper, he’s looking for a deal with lots of years and lots of money. And like Harper, we’re all waiting to see which team he picks.
3. Is Cleveland actually going to trade an ace?
Thoughts: It feels like we’ve heard some sort of Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer trade rumor every week this offseason. Some days, a deal seems inevitable. Some days, not so much. Both pitchers have multiple years of contract control left — three for Kluber, two for Bauer — and both turned in 2018 seasons worthy of Cy Young consideration. Either right-hander would be a huge addition for teams looking to move from pretender to contender. But Cleveland is a contender, too, so the reported asking price is really, really high. If the front office is going to move one of the aces who could help the franchise end its World Series dry spell, Cleveland has to win the trade. Can’t move these guys for marginal prospects/players just to save a few bucks. Honestly, I’m doubtful either is moved before Opening Day, but the idea that they could be traded is intoxicating for fans of teams that could use a rotation boost.
4. Who reaches Cooperstown?
Thoughts: OK, so the actual decisions have already been made. The ballots cast by eligible BBWAA members — including mine — had to be postmarked by Dec. 31, but we don’t find out the results until Jan. 22. Does Edgar Martinez finally reach the necessary 75 percent needed for election? Does Mike Mussina get there, or at least reach 70 percent? Do the numbers move for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens? Larry Walker’s vote totals among revealed ballots have soared this year — from 34.1 percent last year to 66.2 percent at last check on the tracker — but does he stay that high when the final totals are released? This is his ninth year on the ballot, and a finish up near 60 percent means he might actually have a decent shot of getting in with the class of 2020, his final year on the BBWAA ballot. So many questions. Can’t wait to hear the answers.
5. Will Kyler Murray choose baseball or football?
Thoughts: Murray’s decision has zero impact on the 2019 MLB season, of course, but the world is watching to see whether college football’s best player chooses baseball or football. Last June, the A’s picked him with the No. 9 overall pick in the MLB Draft and gave him a signing bonus worth nearly $5 million to join the franchise. They allowed him the opportunity to play one more year of college football, though, and “all” Murray did was lead Oklahoma into the four-team College Football Playoff and win the Heisman Trophy. That’s all.
Murray is a STAR. Not just a “star,” but a STAR: Capital S, capital T, capital A, capital R. Baseball needs high-profile talents like Murray to choose its sport, more than football needs elite athletes to choose football. Here’s what A’s president Billy Beane told me at the Winter Meetings: “As exciting as he is on the football field, some of those skill sets translate to baseball, and that’s why getting him on the baseball field — not just for the A’s, but for baseball in general — will be great for the game.”
6. What’s up with the Marlins and Realmuto?
Thoughts: J.T. Realmuto wants out of Miami. He’s made that pretty clear. And there are lots of teams that would love to trade for the best catcher in baseball. The Marlins don’t really want to trade Realmuto, though. He’s coming off a season with a 131 OPS+, 21 home runs and a 4.3 bWAR in 125 games, and he’s still directly in his prime (he turns 28 in March). They are reportedly asking for a king’s ransom in return, which is their right, of course. But right now, the interested teams are trying to decide from among multiple options: Do they pay the price for Realmuto, sign the best catcher on the free-agent market (Yasmani Grandal) or do they opt for a lesser/cheaper free agent? At some point, these decisions will have to be made and not just mulled over.
7. What does Craig Kimbrel settle for?
Thoughts: The idea that Kimbrel was going to land a contract in the six-year, $100 million range — what he reportedly was looking for — always seemed a bit silly. On one hand, his career numbers are nothing short of ridiculous (four seasons of at least 63 appearances and an ERA below 1.70) and he just helped the Red Sox win the World Series. On the other hand, he turns 31 in May, wasn’t exactly dominant during the postseason and his velocity was down a tick in 2018. And the days of teams paying stars for past performance are done. So what does Kimbrel get? The best relievers on the market are getting two- and three-year deals. Kimbrel will land the largest deal, but at what AAV and how many years? That’s going to be rather fascinating.
Be the first to comment