Staying in Hawaii for another week, the 2019 schedule is off and running for the PGA TOUR.
If you recall last year, this was the spot where golfers got a scare put into them when a National Emergency Text Message was sent to everyone on the island. It turned out to be a false alarm but golfers were scrambling for a good hour before they got the good news.
After just 34 golfers pegged it last week, the field expands to 144 this week with the typical Top 70 and Ties back in play for the cut rule.
Let’s dive into the course, weather, and golfers to watch…
The Course
Waialae Country Club has hosted this event since the inaugural 1965 edition.
This is a classical Seth Raynor design that plays to a par 70 at right around 7,000 yards. Not long by TOUR standards.
Not long on the scorecard but tight fairway corridors and doglegs force golfers into thinking their way around this track.
Many of the longer hitters will be forced to frequently club down off the tee with the focus being on placement rather than distance. Of course there are a few spots where the longer hitters can take some shortcuts but overall this isn’t a course you are going to overpower.
I mentioned the tight fairways already which leads to the field averaging right around just 50 percent of fairways hit most years. A big part of that is due to the firmness of the course. Even balls that land in the fairways will often rollout until they reach the rough. In that regard the fairways-hit percentage is a bit misleading since plenty of the shots will be in very manageable lies, just off the fairway.
Golfers still find greens in regulation on roughly two-thirds of the holes. With less club off the tee, golfers don’t get into as much trouble here. When you dive into the rate of big numbers recorded (Double Bogey or Worse), this is one of the easiest courses on TOUR in that regard. It’s pretty straightforward golf and it’s not tricked up in any way. There is water in play on just two holes.
Even though it’s a par 70, this course also ranks 4th amongst all annual TOUR stops since 2014 when it comes to rates of recorded eagles. The field averages 0.49 eagles per 72 holes here at Waialae while the TOUR average is closer to .33 eagles per 72. Last year the par-5 ninth holes yielded 39 eagles while the par-5 18th hole gave up 15 eagles to the field.
This course is like a PB&J sandwich with the peanut butter and jelly being the most important aspect (Approach + Around-the-Green) while the pieces of bread (Off-the-Tee and Putting) are less relevant skillsets to have here.
They are slowly tweaking this course. Last year it was the par-3 17th that got the renovation. The field managed 75 birdies and a hole-in-one at the 17th last year which is a little easier than the year prior when it yielded 58 birdies and an ace. However, the overall scoring average (3.059) was slightly higher (3.045 in 2017). Overall, it didn’t make much of a difference in the scores recorded.
Similar to last week, golfers will deal with slower-than-average bermudagrass greens. Without much wind in the forecast it is possible they speed them up a tad compared to usual but overall the stimp typically sits around just 11.15 feet here at Waialae.
Lastly, we don’t want to ignore the rust factor as many golfers arrive in Hawaii without much action over the last few months. However, 76% of the podium finishers over the last 5 years had arrived with some competitive action since the start of December. That could mean the Hero, QBE Shootout, Tourney of Champions, Euro Tour, of Australasian Tour. Something to consider if you need a tiebreaker this week.
Course Quotes
Sifting through some past quotes over at the Fantasy Golfanac, let’s try to break down the course to see how they will play…
Jordan Spieth: “I’d like to make these two weeks a regular step every year. I really enjoy this golf course. The first year I played it, you actually have to learn quite a bit of how to map yourself around this place, and the ball rolls a lot more here than it did any place else, and I tried to do a little too much. I remember hitting driver, 3 wood a lot the first year I played it and missed the cut. Then last year played pretty smart, didn’t putt very well.”
Zach Johnson: “It’s always been that way. That’s Waialae. It’s no different. I mean, some of the younger guys probably haven’t seen it, but the course used to be even tighter. The 1st fairway has gotten a little bit wider, specifically on the left. 12th fairway is much wider, and maybe even one or two more. But that being said, wider here is still very, very narrow.”
Justin Thomas: “It’s the hardest fairways to hit on TOUR I think, and the greens aren’t big, and the rough is kind of that length to where you can get some flyers or it can come out dead. The biggest thing is just getting it in play, because I can just hit a lot of 2-irons out here and then I’m having short irons in, and I felt comfortable enough with those that I could hit my numbers.”
Russell Henley: “I guess I like that it’s firm. I like that the greens are bermuda, just like I practice on at home. I like that it’s not a super long course, but you have to be precise where you hit it. I feel like that’s not really the trend these days in making these golf courses.”
Brian Stuard: “I usually hit a draw. It sets up nice. There’s a lot of tee shots where a draw seems to be the shot.”
Overview: The talk of the field is generally about placement and shot-shaping off the tee. It’s not really a bomb-and-gouge style of course. Especially with generally firm conditions which allow the shorter hitters to poke it out there and let it roll. Lots of golfers talk about the bermuda greens being to their liking.
Correlated Courses
Looking at grass types, geography, course attributes, and past performance, here are a few courses/events that I think could prove to be a good pointer this week:
Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course
TPC Boston
TPC Scottsdale
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Firestone CC
The Club at Nine Bridges
Sheshan International
Courses without much blowup potential show up here (Kapalua, Scottsdale, Firestone) but also form in the fall appears to be handy as THE CJ CUP and WGC-HSBC both show up on the list. Innisbrook also makes a lot of sense because it’s another track where boring golf usually rises to the top and there isn’t really the ability to overpower either course.
The Weather
Thursday: Partly Cloudy with a high of 80 degrees. Winds ENE at 10 MPH without much power in the gusts (12 MPH).
Friday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 80 degrees. Winds dead calm in the AM before reaching 10 MPH in the PM. Small chance of afternoon showers.
Weekend: Mostly sunny with a high in the lower 80s. Winds staying calm without much chance of precipitation.
After a windy week on Maui, this one looks relatively calm in terms of wind forecasts go. Should be plenty of birdies and eagles recorded this week.
~
Golfers to Watch
Gary Woodland
Hard to imagine him not winning last week after entering the final round with a 3-shot lead and then posting a bogey-free 68. Now he heads to a course where he’s been T21 or better after each of his last 14 rounds.
Charles Howell III
Over the last 10 years he’s easily gained the most strokes over the field here at Waialae. Part of that is him playing all 10 years but it’s still impressive no matter how you slice it. He’s posted nine top 10s in 17 starts here. Got warmed up last week on Maui.
Justin Thomas
Led the field in Tee-to-Green last week but couldn’t convert on the greens. Should be a good week to go back to the well considering Waialae is the course he posted the infamous 11-under 59. He went on to win that week with a score of 27-under 253.
Cameron Champ
Will be interesting to see his game plan this week. Waialae is pretty tight off the tee but some big hitters have feasted here. JT comes to mind when it comes to attacking aerially. Champ has a bit lower ball flight so I’m not sure he’ll have those same shortcuts open to him. At the same time, perhaps his distance will open up routes that nobody has previously taken. We’ll continue to see that all year long.
Steve Stricker
Would love to see a Champ-Stricker pairing this week. Stricks has the upper hand when it comes to course experience. He is 13-for-14 here with six top 10s to his credit. With a light schedule, he usually arrives with at a disadvantage in terms of competitive rust. That won’t really be the case this week as he stayed warm with an appearance at the QBE Shootout. Looks like a prime top-20 candidate here on a less-than-driver layout.
Cameron Smith
Making his first start since a win at his home open. The 25-year-old is still getting better each year and he’s improved upon each return visit here at Waialae (T81 –> T27 –> T18).
Brian Harman
Was slumping late in the season but a co-win with Patton Kizzire at the QBE Shootout may provide him the confidence spark he needed. He was the first golfer off my Top 25 this week but it wouldn’t surprise me if he tosses himself into contention this week. He’s been T20 or better in each of his last four starts here.
Dylan Frittelli
Another close call to making my Top 25. He ended the year with finishes of T21 or better in four of his last five international starts. He’s played three times since the start of December so his competitive juices should still be flowing.
Kyle Stanley
You could argue that Stanley deserves a spot in my top 25 below and I wouldn’t argue with you. He’s finished top 15 in two of his last three visits to Waialae and he played in December with an appearance at the QBE Shootout.
Jordan Spieth
Making his first start since ying the knot in late November. On paper this is a great course for him but I’d like to see him shake the rust off before feeling confident in an investment.
Ranking the Field
1. Justin Thomas
2. Gary Woodland
3. Marc Leishman
4. Paul Casey
5. Matt Kuchar
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Bryson DeChambeau
8. Charles Howell III
9. Emiliano Grillo
10. Kevin Kisner
11. Jordan Spieth
12. Patrick Reed
13. Brandt Snedeker
14. Cameron Champ
15. Steve Stricker
16. Keegan Bradley
17. Pat Perez
18. Adam Scott
19. Chez Reavie
20. Scott Piercy
21. Bubba Watson
22. Sungjae Im
23. Zach Johnson
24. Ian Poulter
25. Cameron Smith
Check back on Tuesday afternoon for our DFS Dish and Wednesday morning for the Expert Picks.
Be the first to comment