MLB’s Five Most Interesting Salary Arbitration Cases

Mookie Betts and Jacob deGrom hit the jackpot through Major League Baseball’s salary arbitration process Friday. However, some other players will have wait a little longer to see what their financial reward with be.

Betts and Red Sox agreed to a $20-million salary for 2019 to avoid a potential hearing. That was a raise of $9.5 million from the reigning American League MVP’s 2018 salary of $10.5 million.

At the time, it represented the largest raise in arbitration history. The record had been $8.8 million when Max Scherzer, then pitching for the Detroit Tigers, got a boost to $15.675 million in 2014 from $6.725 million the year before.

Betts’ record barely lasted a couple of hours before it was eclipsed by the New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom. The 2018 National League Cy Young Award winner agreed for a $17-million salary after making $7.4 million last year, an increase of $9.6 million.

Just 15 players have yet to settle with their clubs and hearings will be set for those players from between Jan. 29-Feb. 15 in St. Petersburg, Fla. Both sides will make their cases before three-member panel of arbiters and can reach a settlement anytime until the panel announces its decision.

Here are the five most interesting cases yet to be resolved and predictions on how the panels will rule if the cases go to a hearing. It might be wise to take the predictions with a grain of salt as the panel’s decisions often seem to defy conventional baseball logic. They are arbiters after all, not baseball people.

ROCKIES VS. NOLAN ARENADO

The third baseman is asking for $30 million and the Colorado Rockies are offering $24 million. Regardless of the outcome, Arenado will receive a record-breaking sum as Josh Donaldson and the Toronto Blue Jays agreed to a $23-million deal last winter.

Arenado has had a Hall of Fame-type career during his first five-plus season in the major leagues, making his debut April 28, 2013. He has hit .291/.346/.539 while winning six Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers and making four All-Star Game appearances.

Last season while making $17.85 million, Arenado led the NL in home runs for the third time when he belted 38. He also finished second with 110 RBIs and posted a .297/.374/.561 batting line. He was third in the league in slugging percentage, ninth in wins above replacement (WAR) with a 5.6 mark and 10th in batting average.

Prediction: Rockies

ASTROS VS. GERRIT COLE

The right-hander is seeking $13.5 million and the Houston Astros are offering $11.425 million. He made $6.75 million last year.

Cole shined in his first season with the Astros after being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in an offseason trade. He had a 15-5 record, 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts while contributing 5.3 WAR. His 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings led the AL as he fanned 276 in 200 1/3 innings.

Cole was fourth in both ERA and WHIP and 10th in wins. He has gone 74-47 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in six seasons.

Prediction: Cole

INDIANS VS. TREVOR BAUER

Bauer is looking for $13 million and the Cleveland Indians are countering at $11 million. His salary was $6.525 million last season after he beat the Indians at the arbitration table.

Until missing five weeks late last season with a stress fracture in his left leg, Bauer was a strong contender for the AL Cy Young Award. He finished the year with a 12-6 record, 2.21 ERA. 1.08 WHIP. 5.8 WAR and 221 strikeouts over 175 1/3 innings while also topping the league with 0.44 home runs allowed per nine innings and a 2.44 FIP (fielding independent pitching).

Bauer is 59-47 lifetime with a 3.94 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in seven seasons.

Prediction: Indians

PHILLIES VS. AARON NOLA

In his first year of arbitration eligibility, the right-hander is asking for $6.75 million after finishing third in the NL Cy Young Award voting. The Philadelphia Phillies have countered at $4.45 million.

Nola was 17-6 last season with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts while earning $573,000. He also had 224 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings and tied deGrom for the NL lead with 10.0 WAR. Nola was second in the league in ERA, third in WHIP and fourth in WHIP.

In his four-year career, Nola is 41-28 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

Prediction: Nola

YANKEES VS. LUIS SEVERINO

Another arbitration rookie, the righty is seeing $5.25 million and the New York Yankees are offering $4.4 million.

Severino had outstanding final numbers in 2018 with a 19-9 record, 3.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 220 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings and 32 starts, finishing third in the AL in wins, ninth in ERA and 10th in WHIP. His salary was $604,975.

However, Severino was 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA in 12 second-half after going 14-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 20 starts before the All-Star break. He is 41-25 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in four major league seasons.

Prediction: Severino