Projected PPV sales for historic fights

Manny Pacquiao is one of the most successful pay-per-view fighters in history, and he shares the single-event sales record with Floyd Mayweather with an astounding 4.6 million PPV buys for their mammoth 2015 superfight in Las Vegas.

Mayweather and Pacquiao are the game’s biggest draws today, along with Canelo Alvarez, but there are fighters in the past who were just as big, if not bigger. They, however, didn’t have the benefit of today’s technology to sell pay-per-view and methods to promote sales, such as social media.

Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr., embrace in the ring at the finish of their welterweight title fight on Saturday, May 2, 2015 in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Isaac Brekken)

So what I did was come up with 10 bouts from history and project what they would have done in 2019 with the connected universe as large as it is and all the ways to promote.

I tried to stay away from fights that actually occurred on PPV, though I did choose one because I felt it would benefit so much from today’s environment.

I picked several fighters more than once, but if two fighters met more than once, I only picked one fight from their series for this list.

This is not meant to be an exhaustive list, nor what I think would be the 11 best-selling PPV fights. It is simply power rankings of fights I believe would do far better today than when they occurred. In doing this, I considered the fight in terms of its significance at the time it happened and simply tried to project what it might do if it were held today with all the resources available.

11. Rocky Marciano vs. Joe Louis, Oct. 26, 1951, Madison Square Garden, New York — At the time, Marciano and Louis were considered among the greatest heavyweights who ever lived (and they remain so today). Louis was a beloved figure but was clearly past his prime, but was fighting because he had financial difficulties. Marciano was 37-0 and Louis 66-2, and interest was high. 2019 projection: 6.2 million.

10. Sugar Ray Leonard vs. Roberto Duran, Nov. 25, 1980, Superdome, New Orleans — Duran handed Leonard his first loss five months earlier in an amazing fight in Montreal. Leonard stood in the pocket and exchanged with Duran, almost as if he was trying to prove his toughness by engaging with the fearsome Panamanian. The rematch, which became known as “The No Mas Fight,” when Duran quit on his stool, was even bigger than the first because of Leonard’s desire for revenge. 2019 projection: 6.5 million pay-per-views.

9. Marvelous Marvin Hagler vs. Sugar Ray Leonard, April 6, 1987, Caesars Palace, Las Vegas — Leonard was the biggest star in boxing and Hagler was, alongside a young Mike Tyson, the most feared fighter in boxing. There were people, including many in the media, who were legitimately concerned for Leonard’s well-being. This fight had been talked about for years, and Leonard shot it down in a nationally televised affair in 1982 in which he was expected to challenge Hagler. By the time the fight rolled around, the public had an insatiable appetite to see it. 2019 projection: 6.75 million pay-per-views.

8. Jack Johnson vs. James J. Jeffries, July 4, 1910, specially constructed stadium, Reno, Nevada — Jeffries had retired in 1904 but with Johnson, an African-American, as champion, fans were clamoring for a white champion to regain the title. They turned to Jeffries, who became known as “The Great White Hope,” and lured him out of retirement. Racial tensions were high and much of white America threw its support behind Jeffries. Johnson knew how to sell a fight and get under people’s skin. 2019 projection: 7.1 million pay-per-views.

7. Muhammad Ali vs. Jerry Quarry, Oct. 26, 1970, City Auditorium, Atlanta — This was Ali’s first bout since March 22, 1967 when he stopped Zora Folley. He lost his license after that fight for refusing to be inducted into the military service. Ali at this point was bigger than ever and his face was the most recognizable in the world. Quarry was ranked No. 1 at the time of the fight and was known as a tough and exciting fighter. 2019 projection: 8.4 million pay-per-views.

6. Jack Dempsey vs. Gene Tunney, Sept. 22, 1927, Soldier Field, Chicago — This was the famous “Long Count” bout and it was a rematch of their 1926 heavyweight title match that drew 120,557 and which Tunney won by unanimous decision. There was great animosity between the two and Dempsey was the biggest star of the day. The attendance for this fight was 104,943 and it produced a $2.9 million gate, which adjusted for inflation in today’s dollars would be $41.5 million. 2019 projection: 9.5 million pay-per-views.

5. Sugar Ray Robinson vs. Jake LaMotta, Chicago Stadium, Chicago, Feb. 14, 1951 — This was the sixth match between these fighters and Robinson had won four of the previous five. Robinson entered the bout with an astounding 121-1-2 record, and the only defeat was at the hands of LaMotta in their second bout on Feb. 5, 1943. This fight, though, came more than five years after the fifth bout. With the suspense of having not seen each other for five years and the history of those great fights, this would have been a massive event, as well. 2019 projection: 9.7 million pay-per-views.

4. Joe Louis vs. Max Schmeling, Yankee Stadium, New York, June 22, 1938 — There was a tremendous amount of national pride in this fight, as World War II was approaching and German Chancellor Adolf Hitler was proclaiming Aryan superiority. Schmeling had upset Louis in a great 1936 fight, and interest in the rematch was off the charts. 2019 projection: 10.1 million pay-per-views.

3. Mike Tyson vs. Evander Holyfield, June 28, 1997, MGM Grand Garden, Las Vegas — “The Bite Fight,” was a rematch of their first bout in which Holyfield, who was a 24-1 underdog at one point, stopped Tyson in the 11th round. This fight sold 1.99 million on pay-per-view but in a dramatically smaller universe than exists today, as well as without social media and the abundance of cable news channels that exist now. The bout grossed $180 million then, which would be $282 million in today’s dollars when adjusted for inflation. It would have done far more had Tyson and Holyfield had the tools to promote this fight that boxers do now. 2019 projection: 10.4 million pay-per-views.

2. Muhammad Ali vs. Leon Spinks, Sept. 15, 1978, Superdome, New Orleans — On Sept. 20, 1978, the Associated Press wrote a story talking about ABC’s dominance in the ratings. In that piece was including the following line: “The biggest audience ever for a televised sporting event watch ABC’s broadcast of the heavyweight championship rematch between Muhammad Ali and Leon Spinks. ABC estimated the audience for the 15-round fight at 90 million.” OK, it was on free TV, but this was Ali at his most beloved point in his career, fighting to regain his title from the Olympic champion who had upset him. This would have been mammoth. 2019 projection: 12.1 million.

1. Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier, Madison Square Garden, New York, March 8, 1971 — The most famous fight of all-time along with the most famous individual fighter ever that pitted two unbeaten men, each of whom had a claim to the heavyweight title, would do gigantic business on pay-per-view. Imagine what Ali would do to promote “The Fight of the Century” if he could communicate on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, SnapChat and more? 2019 projection: 12.5 million pay-per-views.

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