Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (counseling sold separately at Louisville, where no lead is ever safe):
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BIG SEASONS ARE SECURED IN THE SPRING
Gonzaga coach Mark Few (1) told The Minutes last year that the months of April, May and June have become as busy and important as any other time on the calendar in terms of shaping a team for next year — more impactful in many ways than either signing day, in the fall or spring. The key events: figuring out who is going pro and who is returning, and navigating the increasingly flooded transfer market.
Few got good news last spring when forward Rui Hachimura (2) decided quickly and easily to return to school for his junior season. Some key NBA decisions elsewhere went down to the wire, and they’ve had lasting impacts on this 2018-19 season.
The toughest calls came from players who were invited to attend the NBA combine — almost all of those guys stayed in the draft. But five who returned have benefited from the decision, as have their programs:
PJ Washington (3), Kentucky. Decision day: May 30, last day to declare. For years, the sophomore stigma has hurt the Wildcats — if you’re not one-and-done as a celebrated recruit, you’ve failed. That mindset has led to more than a few bad decisions to go pro (see below). Washington might single-handedly alter that perception, because coming back for his sophomore season has been a colossal win-win for himself and the Wildcats.
Kentucky’s PJ Washington had a slow start to the 2018-19 season. At the rate he’s going now, however, he’s quickly making up ground for All-America candidacy.
He’s become the best player on a team that is now in the running for a No. 1 seed. While playing almost the same minutes as last season, Washington’s scoring is up from 10.8 to 14.8 points per game; rebounds up from 5.7 to 8.0; and most dramatically his 3-point shooting percentage has shot up from 23.8 to 43.4. That’s made Washington much harder to defend as an inside-outside threat. He’s been at his best the last two weeks, averaging 21.5 points over the last four games.
“What makes me happy is when I’m hearing people call me and say, ‘Cal, he’s the most improved guy in the country,’” John Calipari said Saturday night. “And a big part of that was conditioning and toughness and focus. … PJ finishes first in every run we do right now. Every run we do, [assistant coach] Kenny Payne’s screaming and yelling, ‘Don’t let him finish first’ and guys are trying to chase him down and he ain’t letting them. Now, let me explain. He wasn’t first last year.”
The Martin twins (4), Nevada. Decision day: Late on May 30, just minutes before the deadline. They’re both listed at 6-foot-7, but measured shorter than 6-5 without shoes at the combine, according to NBAdraft.net. That might not have helped their draft stock, but returning to Reno for another season should. While Caleb’s 3-point shooting has been a bit more spotty this year than last, his two-point percentage has risen from 50.4 to 57.5. Almost all of Cody’s efficiency numbers have improved year-over-year, most notably his shooting inside the arc (55.2 percent to 61.7) and at the line (70.1 percent to 75.7). With those two and fellow senior Jordan Caroline, Nevada is 24-1 and a legit Final Four threat.
Carsen Edwards (5), Purdue. Decision day: May 29. Edwards was another combine attendee who measured up short in bare feet at less than 5-11, per NBAdraft.net, despite being listed at 6-1. That’s point guard size but he’s putting up shooting guard numbers. At any size, Edwards is still plenty big enough to carry the load for the Boilermakers, who are 18-7 and half a game out of first in the Big Ten at 11-3. If Edwards can maintain his 24.4 points per game average (up from 18.5 a year ago) it will be the highest-scoring season at Purdue since Glenn “Big Dog” Robinson averaged 30.3 a quarter century ago.
Bruno Fernando (6), Maryland. Decision day: May 28. The powerful post man is a huge reason why the Terrapins will be back in the NCAA tourney field after missing it in 2018. He’s adding some offensive polish to his game while also enhancing his overall assertiveness. Fernando had 21 assists his entire freshman season, 50 thus far this year. He’s already scored 70 more points than all of last season, and collected 80 more rebounds. He’s had seven double-doubles in his last eight games.
Late decisions by non-combine attendees:
Lindell Wigginton (7), Iowa State. Decision day: May 30. Wigginton’s role has shifted from his freshman to sophomore year due to two factors: He missed 10 games with a foot injury, and the Cyclones have better players around him. His minutes are down nearly 10 per game, but Iowa State’s competitiveness is way up over last season — an NCAA tournament bid is all but assured after missing the Big Dance in 2018. In fact, the Cyclones have a legit shot at the Big 12 title after winning at Kansas State on Saturday, a game in which Wigginton made five threes and scored 23 points.
Tyler Cook (8), Iowa. Decision day: May 30. The Hawkeyes have had more dramatic heroes in recent games (see below), but the season-long lynchpin has been Cook, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding and whose production is up in virtually every category. The 6-9, 250-pound forward is a big reason why Iowa is on track for its first NCAA bid in three years.
Ethan Happ (9), Wisconsin. Decision day: May 30. The senior post player leads the Badgers in scoring, rebounds and assists, which is a good reason why Ken Pomeroy has him No. 2 in his personal Player of the Year ratings (behind Zion Williamson, obvi). Fact is, Happ led the team in all those categories last year as well, but the numbers have increased: scoring from 17.9 to 18.4, rebounds from 8 to 10.5, assists from 3.7 to 4.8. And this Wisconsin team is much better than last year’s, which missed the NCAA tourney for the first time since 1998.
Wisconsin forward Ethan Happ (22) looks to shoot as Michigan center Jon Teske defends during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Feb. 9, 2019, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
IF THE DECISIONS HAD BEEN DIFFERENT…
Players who went undrafted, have not found a permanent home on an NBA roster and could be major contributors in college:
Rawle Alkins (10), Arizona. He left Tucson after his sophomore year and has appeared in three NBA games for the Chicago Bulls, scoring his lone basket Dec. 23. Alkins is spending much more of his time with the Windy City Bulls of the G League. Arizona (14-12, 5-8 in the Pac-12, loser of seven in a row) desperately could have used Alkins this season to help avert what could be the program’s first losing season since 1984. (Then again, Alkins might have vacated college ahead of the NCAA posse; evidence in a federal trial last year tied him to aspiring agent Christian Dawkins, who documented a detailed payment plan to Alkins’ family in documents seized by the government.)
Malik Newman (11), Kansas. The Jayhawks, short-handed after injury and NCAA flim-flammery, would have loved another season from a guard who averaged 14.2 points and five rebounds as a transfer from Mississippi State. Instead Newman is playing 20 minutes a game for the Canton Charge in the G League.
The early entries from Texas A&M (12). At least underclassman Robert Williams was drafted, even though he’s been a non-factor with the Boston Celtics. Fellow Aggies Tyler Davis and D.J. Hogg were not, but both signed with agents. Both are in the G League. Davis did make one appearance for Oklahoma City this season, attempting one shot and grabbing one rebound. After losing those three players and having senior guard Admon Gilder out all year with what he said is a blood clot issue, the Aggies have crashed to a 10-14 record after reaching the Sweet 16 a year ago. There is strong speculation that coach Billy Kennedy won’t be back after his eighth season concludes.
EXPOSED WEAKNESSES
Five teams having very good seasons that could end badly, if recently exposed flaws cannot be overcome.
Michigan State (13). The flaw: a lack of healthy, productive players. When Joshua Langford went down with a season-ending injury in late December, that increased the burden on star guard Cassius Winston. Then big man Nick Ward broke his hand Sunday, and now Winston is going to have to be superhuman to get the Spartans into late March or early April. In the first 14 games of the season, Winston averaged 30.4 minutes per game; since then it has been 35.7. But while the general burden of leadership falls on the junior guard from Detroit, the specific need in the wake of the Ward injury will be interior presence from sophomore Xavier Tillman and little-used freshman Thomas Kithier.
Tennessee (14). The flaw: interior size and defensive intensity. Rick Barnes has started 6-11 Kyle Alexander all season, but spends roughly one-third of each game with a small-ball lineup wherein nobody is taller than Grant Williams (generously listed at 6-7). Alexander’s rebound totals have dipped over the last month — down from 8.1 the first 14 games of the year to 5.5 the last 11, and down from one board every 3.5 minutes played to one every 4.4 minutes. The Volunteers were able to get by playing small, blocking out indifferently and defending haphazardly against a succession of mediocre opponents … and then came Kentucky. The Wildcats pummeled Tennessee in the paint and on the glass, shooting and jumping over the Vols in a blowout win Saturday night. If Tennessee wants to reach its first-ever Final Four, it likely will need a taller lineup or a tougher one. Or both.
Kentucky coach John Calipari tries to quiet the crowd as chants of “overrated” erupt during the second half of the team’s NCAA college basketball game against Tennessee. Kentucky won 86-69. (AP)
Villanova (15). The flaw: Two players, three spectators. As the only two major contributors returning from last year’s national championship season, this was always going to be a Phil Booth/Eric Paschall production. But the increasing reliance on those two — especially at crunch time — has made the Wildcats easier to guard. On the whole, Booth and Paschall have scored 47 percent of Villanova’s points this season, but in Big East play that has been ratcheted up to 51 percent. In blowing a big lead against St. John’s on Sunday, the two monopolized the ball late with poor results. From the moment St. John’s took its first lead, 54-53 with 7:02 remaining, until less than a minute remained, Booth or Paschall took every shot and made every move to the basket. The results: 1-for-7 from the field, 4-7 from the line, three turnovers. Jay Wright has to find another weapon, or at least a reasonable decoy.
Kansas State (16). The flaw: The Bruce Weber offense. He’s a great defensive coach, which is the biggest reason why the Wildcats are leading the Big 12 at the moment. But scoring — specifically shooting — is not this team’s forte. K-State has the least-efficient offense by far of any team in the Ken Pomeroy top 40, checking in at No. 107. The Wildcats are 234th nationally in 3-point accuracy, 225th in two-point accuracy and 322nd in free-throw accuracy. They’re also playing more slowly at the offensive end than any Weber team since 2013. In a league that has some firepower, it will be tough for K-State to hold on to first place.
Virginia (17). The flaw: Too few easy baskets. Now, when you shoot 40 percent from 3-point range, then the long balls look easy, too. But as Virginia knows better than anyone, a bad night beyond the arc in March can have devastating consequences — which means scoring near the rim and from the foul line are prized traits. The Cavaliers were among the worst in the nation at free throw rate the previous two seasons, ranking 345th last year and 346th in 2016-17. They’re better this year at 267th. But they still have attempted the fewest free throws per game of any team in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and that number is decreasing — from 16.5 in all games to just 14.2 in league play, heading into a Monday night game at Virginia Tech.
HAWKEYE HEART ATTACKS
No team has been living on the edge — the right side of the edge — like Iowa (18) in recent games. The Hawkeyes are on a four-game winning streak, and each of the last three has been more dramatic than the last.
At Indiana on Feb. 7, the Hoosiers chopped a large Iowa lead to three points with 1:50 left. Then guard Jordan Bohannon (19) hit two big threes, the latter as the shot clock was nearing zero, and followed that with five free throws in the final 27 seconds to ice the victory.
Three days later at Northwestern, Iowa was hopelessly beaten — down 14 points with less than four minutes to play. Then the Hawkeyes started executing like crazy — Bohannon in particular — and the Wildcats started seizing up. Iowa wound up with possession of the ball down two in the final 10 seconds, and Bohannon swished a contested three from the top of the key for the win with a second left.
All of which served as prelude for what happened Saturday at Rutgers, when it was more a matter of being lucky than good. This time it was the Hawkeyes losing their grip on a late lead, falling behind by a point on a Geo Baker three with three seconds left. Fran McCaffery called timeout and set up a full-court pass by his son, Connor. Bohannon was double covered, so he was not an option.
“If [Steve Pikiell] was going to lose, it wasn’t going be because Bohannon made one,” Fran McCaffery said.
Iowa senior Nicholas Baer tipped the long pass toward the corner, where freshman Joe Wieskamp (20) ran it down, turned and fired in almost a single motion. Then luck intervened — the shot kissed off the backboard at an improbable angle, swishing through the net for the victory.
“I wound up being in the right place at the right time,” Wieskamp said.
Tuesday night, the right place will be Big Ten Network and the right time will be 8 p.m. ET. That’s when Iowa plays again, against Maryland. Can’t wait to see what the Hawkeyes dream up next.
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